2026 promises to be a record year, tourism expenditure over 132.5 billion

The year 2026 promises to be a good one, with 141.2 million arrivals, an increase of 2.1% over the previous year, and almost 479 million overnight stays (+0.4%). If the consequences of high energy prices and inflation remain at tolerable levels, tourist expenditure will be 132.7 billion Euro, an increase of 4%. This is revealed by Demoskopika's forecasts for the 2026 tourist season, which should see the recovery of the domestic component of holidaymakers and a different timing of flows with a view to deseasonalisation. Signs of recovery are coming from the domestic market, with almost 64.8 million arrivals and more than 213 million overnight stays, while the contribution of arrivals from abroad will exceed the 55% share of presences thanks to the arrival of more than 76 million visitors from across the border.

"Italia's tourism is also growing in 2026, driven also by the domestic component, of which we are proud. Tourism spending is on the rise and the flow is spread throughout the year," points out Gianmarco Mazzi, Minister of Tourism. "There are all the ingredients for the tourism industry to be more and more the engine of our economy. This is the result of work that enhances the commitment of businesses, of operators in the sector, and of a government that believes wholeheartedly in this industry".

The first effects of deseasonalisation policies are also expected, with a declining share of admissions in the summer months at 56.9%, while in the shoulder periods, such as March-May and October-November, admissions will be at 29.4%.

"The forecasts for 2026 return the image of a tourism sector that continues to show capacity for growth and adaptation, even in an economic context still characterised by strong elements of uncertainty," report the Demoskopika researchers. "The most interesting data could come from the recovery of the domestic component, which would return to growth after a two-year period marked by a weaker domestic demand. At the same time, the consolidation of a more balanced distribution of flows during the year points to a progressive lengthening of the tourist season, an element that would contribute to reducing pressure in periods of greater concentration and make the activity of tourism businesses more stable even in months traditionally considered marginal. In this direction, it would become increasingly important to accompany the growth of the sector with targeted interventions on tourist mobility, with strategies capable of incentivising travel during periods of lower affluence, and with actions aimed at improving the accessibility of less congested destinations'.