Cancer numbers 2024

Tumours, new cases in Italy number 390,100 and half will be 'cured'. The hoax of an epidemic among young people (but risky lifestyles)

Denied a jump in mortality in young population groups reported in recent months that was the result of overestimated global epidemiological data that did not take into account different demographic, epidemiological and health system response factors

by Barbara Gobbi

19 December 2024

5' min read

Key points

The challenge, investing in prevention
Frequency
Territorial imbalances
Epidemic among young people? Not in Italy

5' min read

If three clues make a proof, then in the always complex cancer landscape we can see a first potential brightening in Italy. Substantially stable with a slight drop in new cases, which will be 390,100 in 2024; mortality in young adults down by 25% in the last 15 years (in men -28% and in women -21.4%); a steady increase in the number of people alive after a cancer diagnosis: 3.7 million today. With half of those who fall ill today destined to recover, i.e. to have the same life expectancy as those who do not have cancer.

Good news. It is a shame that we ourselves are rowing against research, therapeutic innovation and the efficiency of the National Health Service, which is capable of treating serious illnesses despite its many criticalities. Smoking, alcohol, overweight and obesity, sedentariness: these are all risk factors that can be eliminated or managed, and yet we are just not there. Almost a quarter of adults (24%) smoke, 33% are overweight and 10% obese, and 18% consume health-threatening amounts of alcohol. Sedentariness is rising from 23% in 2008 to 28% in 2023, and the increase is faster among younger people and those with greater economic difficulties, and more acute especially in the Centre and South. As for the screening offered free of charge by the SSN, the response rate, though slightly increasing, remains dramatically low, especially in the South: 49% for breast screening, 47% for cervix and 32% for colon-rectum.

The challenge, investing in prevention

The synthesis effort - which also includes focus on the migrant population, in prisons and in war zones - is contained in the 14th edition of 'The numbers of cancer in Italy 2024', the result of the synergy between the Italian Association of Medical Oncology (Aiom), the Italian Association of Cancer Registries (Airtum), the Aiom Foundation, the National Screening Observatory (Ons), Passi (Progress of Healthcare Companies for Health in Italy), Silver Passes and the Italian Society of Pathological Anatomy and Diagnostic Cytology (Siapec-Iap).

Aiom president Francesco Perrone takes stock: 'The report shows a lot of good news, but it is precisely the data on risk factors that continue to worry us. Even on smoking, for which we register a minimal decrease, we certainly cannot sing victory and we are fully committed to this battle. The significant reduction in deaths from lung cancer among young adults aged between 20 and 49 -46.4% among women and 35.5% among men, in an age group where the incidence of this disease remains low - can be attributed above all to the ability of our National Health Service to treat us. While, among the very young, the dangerous increase in smoking behaviour combined with 'vaping' should be noted'.

Warnings confirmed by Health Minister Orazio Schillaci in his preface to the book: "The challenge must be to invest in prevention, promoting healthy lifestyles, starting with a correct diet associated with physical activity," he warns. "Today we know that the wrong diet accounts for about 35% of the onset of cancer, and that the Mediterranean diet reduces overall mortality by 10%, preventing the development of numerous types of cancer. Then there are plans to extend breast screening from 45 to 74 years of age, as several regions are already doing, and to guarantee 'in the not too distant future', promises the minister, that for the lung, which today is among the most widespread cancers, especially among men.

Frequency

The summary data: there is life after diagnosis. The most frequently diagnosed cancer in Italy in 2024 is breast cancer (53,686 cases), followed by colorectal (48,706), lung (44,831), prostate (40,192) and bladder (31,016). In 2022, in Italy, there are an estimated 35,700 deaths from lung cancer, 24,200 from colorectal cancer, 15,500 from breast cancer, 14,900 from pancreas and 9,900 from stomach cancer. In 2024, an estimated 3.7 million Italians will be living after a cancer diagnosis.

6.2% of the entire population,' reads the book, 'equal to one Italian in sixteen. Of these 3.7 million, 56% are women (over 2 million), equal to 6.8% of the female population, while there are over 1.6 million men, equal to 5.6% of all males in Italy. Breast cancer is by far the most frequent neoplasm (925,406 women), affecting almost half (45%) of all women living after a cancer diagnosis. The second most frequent site - the first among men - is prostate cancer with 484,882 living after diagnosis. The other most frequent sites are colorectal (442,634), bladder (300,246, mostly men), thyroid (235,989, mostly women) and melanomas (221,000). The top six cancer sites account for 71% of people living today after a cancer diagnosis.

The territorial imbalances

In general, cancer registry data indicate a steady increase in prevalence, i.e. the number of people living after diagnosis, of around +1.5% per year over the past decade. "Half of the people who fall ill with cancer in 2024 are destined to be cured," warns Diego Serraino, Director of Oncological Epidemiology and Tumour Registry of Friuli Venezia Giulia, Cro Irccs di Aviano. "The role of early diagnosis in increasing the probability of definitively overcoming the disease is evident.

By 2023 the NHS has invited almost 16 million people to undergo screening, representing more than 90% of the population concerned, but, as Paola Mantellini, director of the National Screening Observatory, points out, 'the differences between the areas of the country must be reduced. For mammography, coverage reaches 62% in the North, 51% in the Centre, and 31% in the South; for cervical screening, the coverage level is 57% in the North, 45% in the Centre, and 35% in the South; for colorectal screening, it drops everywhere: 45% in the North, 32% in the Centre, and 15% in the South".

Epidemic among young people? Not in Italy

The really good news that emerges from 'The Numbers of Cancer 2024' is the stark denial of a 'cancer epidemic' with a jump in mortality in the younger segments of the population, which has been reported in recent months and which was influenced by overestimated global epidemiological data that did not take into account the various demographic, epidemiological and health system response factors. Of the nearly 10 million cancer deaths each year worldwide, 10.5% occur in young adults, i.e. people between 20 and 49 years of age. In Europe, where populations are older, cancer deaths in young adults account for 4.3% of all cancer deaths in 2022.

As for Italy, an analysis of mortality among 20-49 year-olds between 2006 and 2021 shows a clear overall decline in deaths from neoplasia in both sexes, our oncologists point out. "In 15 years, 786 lives were saved among women and 939 among men in this age group compared to the expected number based on 2006 rates," says Massimo Di Maio, president-elect of Aiom. Of particular positive importance, in both sexes, is the significant decrease in lung cancer mortality, by 46.4% among women and 35.5% among men under 50. These figures are extremely encouraging, considering that this neoplasm is the leading cause of cancer death in young adult men and the second in women after breast cancer. This observation is in addition to the progress achieved, thanks to recent therapeutic innovations, in survival after diagnosis of lung cancer. But it must be reiterated that the data on Italians' lifestyles must give us the urgency to strengthen efforts for primary prevention at all ages, through the fight against cigarette smoking, otherwise there is a risk of a trend reversal in the coming years. On the other hand, we must bear in mind the alarm bells that have been ringing in this age group for colorectal and ovarian neoplasms, where mortality has remained stable for years'.