40 per cent of Italians want a Europe that is independent of anyone; they support Kyiv but are cautious about arms

Russia is a threat, but not an imminent one

The Russian threat is recognised: 65.7 per cent of Italians see it. However, only 17.2 per cent regard it as ‘grave and immediate’, whilst a relative majority (33.3 per cent) consider it ‘serious but not immediate’ and one in five Italians dismiss it entirely. This is where the apparent paradox is resolved: Russia is a cause for concern enough to warrant a European defence, but not enough to fully arm Ukraine.

Public opinion on Israel and Palestine is the most fragmented and uncertain. One in four Italians (24.1 per cent) do not know or prefer not to answer, the highest proportion of any international issue. Among those who do express an opinion, no single position exceeds a quarter: the two-state solution (25.3 per cent) represents the middle ground; critical views of the Israeli Government (30.6 per cent) outnumber those of full support (20 per cent); and 12.1 per cent even deny Israel’s right to exist. It is also the issue on which the right and the left are most sharply divided.

The second finding overturns the image of a country split in two. Only 15.6 per cent of Italians want a ‘clear and ongoing divide’ between the centre-right and the centre-left. Two in three (66.2%), on the other hand, are calling for the political camps to reach an agreement at least on fundamental issues, whilst a quarter (25.1%) would like to see broad cooperation. The areas for agreement are clearly identified: security (42.6 per cent), immigration (29.9 per cent), justice (29.7 per cent), the environment (24 per cent), and foreign policy and Italy’s international standing (19.4 per cent). Italians are calling for bipartisan cooperation precisely in those areas where politics is currently characterised by confrontation.

When it comes to immigration, Italians reject both extreme positions. ‘Controlled and selective entry, based on the country’s needs’ is the position held by almost half of the sample (46.8 per cent). ‘Let everyone in’ is supported by 2 per cent; ‘let no one in’ by 14.7 per cent. The call is for the management of migration flows, not for a complete closure of borders nor for indiscriminate openness. On the legality of entry, the response is clearer: 59.1 per cent believe that those arriving illegally should be turned away, either in all cases (31.1 per cent) or except in exceptional circumstances such as fleeing a war (28 per cent). Only 2.6 per cent believe that everyone should be welcomed without distinction.

Security is the issue on which opinions are the most clear-cut and widely shared. 59.6 per cent are calling for a tougher approach: ‘very strict laws and much longer prison sentences’ (30.3 per cent) or ‘stricter penalties and more police officers’ (29.3 per cent). 21 per cent want a balance between a firm stance and prevention, whilst 13 per cent favour prevention. The view that concerns about crime are exaggerated is virtually non-existent: 1.4 per cent. This sentiment cuts across all sections of society and is particularly prevalent amongst those with fewer means of defending themselves: housewives, jobseekers and those with lower educational qualifications.