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Can a $6.5 billion 'me' dethrone Apple?

4' min read

4' min read

A few days ago, OpenAI invested $6.5 billion in 'io', a company set up to create 'gizmos' based on artificial intelligence. The amount is large in itself, slightly lower than what it would take to buy Pirelli, Fincantieri, TIM or a third of Leonardo or Mediobanca, but the interesting thing is that 'io' still has neither a customer nor a marketable product: its founder showed a prototype to Sam Altman, founder of OpenAi, and that was enough. It should be added that the founder is Jony Ive, Steve Jobs' legendary designer, creator of the iPhone and the Apple Watch, and that in 'io' there are many designers and engineers who have contributed to Apple's success.

As the news spread, many began to consider Apple doomed: already lagging behind with AI applications (for those in doubt, try Siri), stuck in the dilemma of innovating such an iconic and cash-flow-generating product as the iPhone, and, to make matters worse, unable to run factories themselves and under pressure in the new world of tariff walls.

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Altman and Ive's vision is as simple as it is futuristic: to think of a 'contraption' that is with us all the time, that we can interact with without a screen (at least initially) and that works with the power of artificial intelligence. After all, since the birth of computers, we have all had to write on a screen to be able to interact, create codes, produce documents; an enormous limitation to the many ways that humans have to think, create, do. The most natural way is with speech and, at most, with images: writing is a sophisticated communication code but only one of the ways to express ourselves. Altman and Ive's goal is to sell 100 million (!) 'gizmos' that will not be phones or glasses, but something completely new, that will be integrated into our lives with a fluid and intuitive interaction like the MacBook or the iPhone. In short, the end of scrolling.

familyandtrends wrote in October 2024 a book on artificial intelligence by posing a simple question: AI, like all technologies, to be useful must do something for which a consumer is willing to pay more than the cost incurred to produce it.

Apple does for us a job for which we are willing to pay (a lot): it makes technology available in a user-friendly way. It has been doing this since the days when its co-founder, Steve Wozniak (Voz), used to help the super software experts and bright students from Standford who met at the Homebrew Computer Club to build their own personal computers. In Voz's words, 'very few could actually build it (the personal computer), they were super software and programming experts, but they had no idea how to solder a motherboard'. Apple's early PCs were built to make a programmable object available to software enthusiasts. That is why design has always been important to Apple, not because it is elegant, but because it makes it easy to use by integrating hardware and software. The click wheel on the iPod that also shaped the Cupertino office became iconic not because it was elegant but because it made it easy to enjoy music. Apple has never exploited frontier technologies, it has always waited for them to spread and become stable, at which point it integrated them and brought them easily to the consumer.

Who will win this time? The large, somewhat slow-moving enterprise or the (almost) start-up full of enthusiasm (and money)? Clayton Christensen's Law of Retention of Attractive Profits helps us to answer. The law says that when functionality and reliability are inadequate, companies integrate more critical elements to ensure smooth operation and with this integration make something useful for the consumer, e.g. the first Nespresso machine. Apple has been a master at this since the days of the Homebrew Computer Club. Back when listening to MP3s required accessing the internet with a slow, crackling modem, downloading tracks from sites of dubious legality onto PCs without sound cards and then taking them to a device that could be connected to speakers, Apple launched iTunes and the iPod and opened up the era of infinite music not limited to 90' cassette tapes.

When functionality and reliability are good enough, the consumer is no longer willing to pay for whoever integrates the critical elements, he can happily buy the individual 'modules' and build the solution himself, e.g. compatible Nespresso capsules. Modularisation rewards those companies that are able to make the most important component to the satisfaction of the consumer, who then adds the other undifferentiated modules himself, e.g. the coffee machine. We all bought 'Intel inside' PCs as long as speed and performance were important elements for our satisfaction, when speed and performance became good enough, everyone was able to make their own processors and Intel simply disappeared from keyboards and from the list of large profitable companies (in the meantime, Nvidia arrived, which alone offers critical performance for new processor uses).

Altman and Ive are aiming to bring AI technology from our PCs to external devices, betting on the fact that this software and hardware integration will solve needs that we cannot solve by integrating different elements of technology on our own; in essence, they are aiming at a 'gizmo' that will bring artificial intelligence out of PCs in the same way that the iPod brought music out of them. They think, therefore, to beat Apple to the punch in its own speciality. Altman's 6.5 billion is banking on the fact that with the iPhone designer, this will be possible. A bit like if someone wanted to beat Ferrari by hiring Mr Pinin Farina or Ferrero by hiring Mr William Salice (the inventor of the Kinder egg).

familyandtrends does not know how it will end, one thing is certain: Farina and Salice would not have broken off their relationship with Enzo Ferrari and Michele Ferrero even for 6.5 billion, and that is the beauty of entrepreneurs and their businesses.

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