A country that does not grow between generations and territories

Over the last thirty years, Italy has recorded one of the lowest fertility rates in Europe, with a value of 1.2 children per woman, against 1.5 in the European Union (source: Eurostat 2024). Underlying this trend are economic difficulties and the lack of effective policies to support families, but also important cultural changes. The Istat Families and Social Subjects surveys (2003, 2009 and 2016) confirm the decline in the number of children per woman and in reproductive intentions, highlighting strong territorial inequalities. In the North and the Centre, reproductive intentions are more stable than in the South and the Islands, where a clear declining trend is observed. Moreover, the areas least served by infrastructure and essential services record the most significant drop in fertility, suggesting a contrast between urban and peripheral areas.

In 2003, it was the regions of the South that had the highest fertility rates, with values between 1.4 (Sicily and Campania) and 1.2 children per woman (Basilicata and Molise), while in the Centre-North the values did not exceed 1.2 children per woman, with the exception of Trentino-Alto-Adige (1.5). In 2016, on the other hand, the Italian demographic landscape appears more uniform, with an average fertility rate of around 1.3 children per woman. The North-South divide has weakened, with values in the southern regions closer to the average already observed in the North, which is lower.

At the same time, there is a weakening of reproductive intentions, which is more marked in the South and the Islands than in the Centre-North. Between 2003 and 2016, the share of men and women intending to have a first child fell from 79% to 74%, while in some southern regions from 80% to 70%. Similarly, intentions to have a second child also declined over the period (from 47% to 41%), with considerable territorial variations. In 2003, two out of three women in the South wanted a second child, compared with one out of three in the North. In 2016, the distance between the two macro-areas narrowed considerably, due to the decline in reproductive intentions in the South, where in some regions less than 50% of women expressed the desire to have a second child (e.g. in Molise). Regional differences combine with those between urban and rural areas, making the North-South divide more complex.

More isolated communities seem to maintain stronger traditional family values than urban centres, but being deprived of services they become an obstacle to the continuation of reproductive life. In contrast, in central areas, which are more modern in terms of values and norms, the widespread diffusion of infrastructure facilitates the desire for fertility.

These trends, which, together with my research group, we have analysed, confirm that job stability and family support play a key role in the intention to become parents: in particular, those who have a stable job, a solid social network and can count on the support of their parents are more inclined to start a family. After the birth of the first child, in addition to economic stability and mutual support within the couple, the availability of family-work reconciliation services, such as crèches and care facilities, becomes crucial to the desire to have a second child. Geography also has an impact: while living in the Centre-South increases the likelihood of wanting a second child, in the peripheral areas of regions such as Lazio, Abruzzo and Molise, this trend is reversed, a sign that geographical isolation and the lack of services may discourage family enlargement.