One month to the referendum, the challenge is on turnout: here's why

With one month to go until the referendum on the separation of careers to be held on 22 and 23 March, the polls record a comeback of the No vote, which until a few weeks ago was many points behind the Yes vote, which was clearly seen as the winner. Now the pollsters' eyes are on the turnout, which seems to be the first indicator of how the consultation will go.

'Our estimates are that on 40% we go to a head-to-head, from 43 the Yes increase,' says Antonio Noto of the homonymous polling institute. In any case, for Noto, it is still too early to fully understand all the dynamics that could come into play between Yes, No and turnout.

According to the Youtrend poll for Sky TG24, the game of the constitutional referendum on justice reform remains open and much will depend on how many people go to the polls. At the moment, the Yes vote is leading with 51.0% in the high turnout scenario (59.6%, including those who would definitely or probably vote) and the No vote is ahead with 51.5% in the low turnout scenario (48.0%, considering only those who would definitely vote). Compared to the survey released on 11 February, the No vote increased by 1.6 points in the high turnout scenario and by 0.4 points in the low turnout scenario. METHODOLOGICAL NOTE: survey carried out with CAWI methodology between 17 and 18 February 2026 on a sample of 813 respondents representative of the population aged 18 and over residing in Italia, surveyed by gender and age cross-section, stratified by educational qualification and ISTAT breakdown of residence. The margin of error is +/- 3.5% with a 95% confidence interval.

In the poll published by Nando Pagnoncelli in the Corriere della Sera, it is the 46% turnout that marks the dividing line. Above that threshold the 'yes' vote would win, below it the victory of the 'no' would be more likely.