Infrastructure and Development

A more sustainable solution for the Messina Strait Bridge

Born with excessive constraints and costs, needs critical analysis to reduce expenses and environmental impact

(Imagoeconomica)

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

It is never too late to admit you have made a mistake and run for cover, perhaps with a better solution. The re-examination requested by the Court of Auditors for the Messina Strait Bridge project should, however, be extended to the premises with which it was originally decided to set it up and which are no longer relevant (or rather: never were).

The bridges project was born more than a couple of decades ago with a functional approach to increase costs disproportionately (to the benefit of builders and the industrial allied industries); there was no awareness that public finances were travelling towards unsustainable limits, and therefore 'the more you spend, the better you spend', in the sense that there is money to be made for many different actors. Consent to mega spending projects is always assured and can also have positive effects in terms of votes for the proposing politicians.

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The best way to increase costs is to introduce seemingly insignificant constraints into the project, which, however, in a cumulative manner and with the development of the executive projects lead to an exponential growth of the investment. There were two initial approaches, given as basic assumptions and therefore never really analysed without bias:

- the inclusion of two railway tracks in addition to the motorway lanes: the weights, vibrations, slope limits and high speeds expected for rail increase the construction costs and time n times compared to a slim motorway-only bridge suitable for limited traffic, mainly cars

- the approach of wanting to set a single span world record at all costs (m 3,300 vs. the Dardanelles bridge of m 2,023). Consequently, it is sufficient to assume that the two load-bearing towers must be placed on land and it is inevitable that the length of the main span must be the width of the Strait of Messina. Positioning the towers a few hundred metres out to sea (as is the case with the Turkish bridge or even the second longest bridge in Japan: Akashi Kaykilō: note that both are built in seismic areas) reduces the overall weight of the bridge, balances the towers more easily (since the main span has a heavier counterweight in the secondary spans) and has other technical and economic advantages.

At first, and as is always the case when there is a strong political and grandeur interest in doing something impressive (think of the Concorde example) justifying the positive economic and social impact of an auto-rail bridge with admirable traffic increase projections is easy on paper but ignores some incontrovertible facts:

- to go from Palermo to Rome, taking a plane will always cost less and will always take less time than going by train, however fast that may be;

- it is absurd to build a railway bridge before having earmarked and started building a modern railroad upstream and downstream of the bridge; the classic cathedral in the desert.

- the biblical time it will take to build the infrastructure will consolidate the trend of reductions in north-south freight traffic by road or rail, since a multimodal system with ships is more efficient for north-south transport; for some time now, transport has been shifting to routes such as Palermo-Genoa or Catania-Campania;

- it is equally absurd to assume for Messina and Reggio Calabria the development that took place with the Øresund bridge between Copenhagen and Malmö, which were already very important industrial and financial districts before.

A final consideration concerns the sustainability of Italy's public debt, given that the bridge will be financed entirely by borrowing more. For years there has been a widespread fable that the debt can grow indefinitely (and therefore there is no need to cut spending or increase taxes) because what matters is not the absolute size but the ratio to GDP, and to decrease this ratio it is enough to make rosy forecasts on future growth; forecasts that in no way are justified by what we see every day. Even if the bridge, in its current configuration, were to cost 'only' some 20 billion euro, it is true that it would be little compared to a public debt of over 3,000 billion, but there is always a drop that makes the pot overflow and it would be wise not to put oneself in a position to stubbornly want to build it with today's decisions.

There is still time to say 'we made a mistake' and instead realise, in a timeframe that is quick and in any case a fraction of what is currently planned, a streamlined and relatively inexpensive motorway bridge, also largely financed by future tolls and private funding. Eliminating the railway component is not 'anti-ecological', because in time even cars will be electric and it is not 'anti-democratic' because a passenger who has little money to spend on a ticket already has the - better - alternative, namely a low cost plane.

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