A safe maritime corridor for oil: the 'Black Sea' model that could unlock Hormuz

Whether that will ultimately be the solution put in place to deal with the energy crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic is reduced due to the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, it is too early to say. It is a hypothesis, which is being discussed, and which could gain momentum now that the Foreign Affairs Council in Brussels has decided that the missions Atalanta and Aspides remain with the mandate they have, and thus their scope will not be extended to those waters, at least for now. But the conditional remains in place. The EU thinks of a UN mission as the 'grain corridor'.

The Black Sea Grain Corridor model pioneered in Ukraine could therefore become the key to finding a way out of the crisis in the Strait and averting a worsening global energy shock. Europe looks to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the agreement born in Istanbul on 22 July 2022, to keep trade routes open and secure oil supplies.

The EU High Representative, Kaja Kallas, reported that she had spoken with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres over the weekend, "to see if an initiative in Hormuz similar to the one on the Black Sea for Ukraine's grain is possible". In addition to energy supplies, warned the head of EU diplomacy, tensions are also likely to affect the fertiliser market and, as a cascade, food production. 'If there is a shortage of fertiliser this year, there will be a shortage of food next year,' she warned. Of course nothing is written in stone, we are only in the early stages, but Guterres' presence at the European Council scheduled for 19 and 20 March may give a boost to the hypothesis.

Signed by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations to reopen Ukrainian agricultural exports after the blockade of ports caused by the Russian invasion, the 'grain pact' served to unblock some 20 million tonnes of grain that had remained stuck in Ukrainian silos since the Russian aggression. The understanding established a safe shipping corridor in the Black Sea for ships departing from the ports of Odessa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny, with controls coordinated in Istanbul by representatives of Moscow, Kiev, Ankara and the UN.

Remaining in place for about a year before Russia's withdrawal, the mechanism allowed the export of more than 33 million tonnes of cereals and agricultural products, mostly to developing countries, helping to cool prices and avoid a more serious crisis especially in Africa and the Middle East.