A super fighter jet to shift Tokyo’s strategic stance

The National Security Strategy and National Defence Strategy drawn up in 2022 will be reviewed before they have even reached the halfway point of their ten-year timeframe, whilst the review of the Defence Buildup Programme has been brought forward by a year. “Tokyo,” explains Lai I-Chung, president of Taiwan’s Prospect Foundation, “has realised that the security situation in the region is deteriorating rapidly and that it must be able to respond more autonomously.”

With this in mind – as well as strengthening relations with other countries in the region (according to Janes, Singapore is reported to have expressed interest in the programme) – the GCAP will enable the Mitsubishi F-2s currently in service with the Japan Air Self-Defence Force to be replaced by 20235.

A target made, if possible, made even more urgent by the events of May last year, when, during the brief conflict between Pakistan and India – and before the two countries resorted to the use of drones – Chinese J-10 fighter jets more than held their own against the French Rafales.

“The People’s Liberation Army Air Force is increasingly deploying combat aircraft and advanced weapon systems, and there are no signs that this trend is set to slow down,” explains Douglas Barrie, Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “A fighter aircraft in the GCAP class,” he concludes, “would act as a significant capability multiplier in the region.”

The growing use of drones, particularly in the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, has raised doubts about the need to continue developing sophisticated and expensive fighter aircraft. Hence the decision to design the Gcap as a ‘system of systems’, capable of also acting as a command centre to operate in coordination with unmanned aircraft. With these features, according to Barrie, obsolescence remains a distant prospect.

“The era of manned combat aircraft,” he explains, “is not yet over. Fighter aircraft will remain in service well beyond the middle of the century. Drones, long-range weapons and programmes to extend the service life of current fighter aircraft will play an important role, but they are a complement to, rather than a replacement for, more advanced manned aircraft.”

The other timeframe issue is of a different nature and concerns the timing of entry into service. Following the failure of the Franco-German-Spanish Scaf project, Germany may consider joining the GCAP programme. Edgewing has diplomatically stated that ‘all three countries participating in the programme have emphasised their willingness to collaborate with other nations within the framework of this initiative’ and that ‘any decision regarding a possible expansion of the partnership will be taken jointly by the three national governments’.

However, there is a widespread perception that an increase in industrial, logistical and governance complexity would slow down production processes. According to Barrie, the entry of Germany into the GCAP ‘would bring funding, a far from negligible demand for aircraft and significant industrial capacity. However, it would also entail risks to the programme’s timetable and industrial aspirations that would be difficult to reconcile’. A risk that, in an increasingly volatile world, not all GCAP members might be willing to take.