A2A posts a mixed quarter, with results falling short of expectations
It has confirmed its targets for the 2026 financial year, but management expects results to fall at the lower end of both forecast ranges
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(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Figures for the quarter that are broadly in line with expectations are not enough for A2A, which has issued a weaker-than-expected forecast for 2026. The share price fell by more than two points, ending up at the lower end of the FTSE MIB . Specifically, A2A confirmed its targets for the 2026 financial year, which envisage adjusted EBITDA of between 2.21 and 2.25 billion euros and adjusted group net profit of between 630 and 660 million, but management expects the results to fall at the lower end of both forecast ranges.
In a report published this morning, Intermonte highlights that ‘low hydroelectric output is beginning to take its toll’ and that ‘the 2026 guidance has been revised downwards’. During the quarter, there was “an expected year-on-year decline in EBITDA, with weaker results in the Generation & Trading and Market divisions, only partially offset by growth in the Networks division”. Following the quarterly results, Intermonte updated its 2026 estimates, reducing the margins for Generation & Trading and Waste whilst increasing those for Electricity Distribution and Water. It has also factored in the expected impacts of the ‘Dl Bollette Bis’ decree, including the gas price cap and the increase in the IRAP surcharge, resulting in a downward revision of adjusted earnings per share of approximately 3 per cent in 2026, 5 per cent in 2027 and 1 per cent in 2028. The target price has therefore been revised downwards to €2.80 from €2.90.
“Despite the current headwinds,” the analysts conclude, “we confirm our positive view on the share” with an ‘outperform’ rating. For its part, Equita (hold with a target price of €2.70) says that the quarterly figures are “broadly in line” but that the guidance is “slightly worse than expected for the year, with results now expected at the ‘lower end’ of the guidance range for EBITDA and profit”. Overall, therefore, the outlook is “slightly negative”. Equita has cut its reported profit forecasts by 4.5% for 2027–29.
