Public Accounts

Accounts, variance option but the EU immediately stops

Thursday in the House the resolution on the Document with the deficit hypothesis for aid. Brussels warns: countries in procedure to respect recommendations

by Gianni Trovati

25 April 2026

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

In the chapter dedicated to 'progress made to meet the net expenditure path recommended by the EU Council', the Public Finance Document describes an ordinary picture; in which the 2026 accounts should manage to get the stamp of Brussels while, barring anything new in the October calculations, the next budget law would be called upon to cut around 3.2 billion to meet the trajectory agreed with the EU (yesterday's Sole 24 Ore).

On the other hand, in the reality of the economy and in the political debate, alarms about the consequences of the stalemate in Hormuz and the need for new aid measures are mounting. The two dimensions have begun to come into conflict. And the temperature is once again rising on the Rome-Brussels line.

On the eve of the parliamentary scrutiny of the Dfp, which will begin on Monday, will see the hearing of Economy Minister Giorgetti on Tuesday evening, and the vote in the House with resolutions on Thursday, the debate on the 'not excluded' deviation by Prime Minister Meloni and the accounts minister himself is intensifying.

The dossier was relaunched yesterday by Minister Salvini. He does not put figures on the table because 'Giorgetti does the accounts', but asks for a green light 'for economic and social expenditure at the same variance of several billion' that the EU allows for the war. The answer comes in a close second.

"Countries in excessive deficit procedure should respect the corrective path recommended by the Council," a Commission spokesperson says. And in addition to certifying that there is no question of exiting the procedure this year, the Dfp confirms that the 2026 margins for increasing net primary expenditure have already been absorbed. And that, on the contrary, due to the overrun created last year by the Superbonus (increase of 1.9% instead of 1.3%), the cumulative increase from 2024 exceeds the path agreed with the EU by six decimal places; but there is confidence in a positive assessment thanks to the 'descending profile of the deficit'.

A deviation would also call this deficit parabola into question. Because no one gets too excited about the numbers, but it is generally agreed that the extra-deficit lever would be moved for important values, around one point of GDP. On the subject, at the Mef the mouths are obviously sealed, but it is difficult to imagine such a battle for much smaller sums.

In any case, the decision has yet to take shape. But it is destined to start appearing in the majority resolution to the Dfp, which next Thursday will at least evoke the option of the extra-deficit among the instruments that the government can put its hand to in order to support 'the disposable incomes of households and the liquidity of businesses' recalled by Giorgetti in the foreword to the Dfp. On the strength of this indication, the government could request authorisation for the extra deficit from Parliament at a later date, perhaps after the Eurogroup and Ecofin meetings scheduled in Brussels on 4 and 5 May.

Caution at Via XX Settembre is mandatory, and is also motivated by the figures in the Dfp itself. Which show how the Hormuz effect has already made itself felt even on the 2026 expenditure for debt interest, now calculated at 94.934 billion: 3.2 billion more than estimated last October (between 2026 and 2028, the additional expenditure is 7 billion). Weighing on this is inflation, which increases the coupons of index-linked bonds, and above all the rise in yields (50 basis points on the 10-year bond, against 35 German, 38 Spanish and 42 French) compared to 27 February, the eve of the attack on Iran. But an unknown hangs over this calendar.

On 1 May, next Friday, the extension of the fuel excise cut expires. At yesterday's levels, the farewell to the discount would bring diesel to an average of EUR 2.31 per litre, i.e. to historical highs. But at the moment there are no drafts of a new decree on the tables of the technicians. There is still a few days to see how the price lists move: and, perhaps, to find new coverage, in a hunt that is becoming increasingly difficult.

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Luogo: Roma
Lingue parlate: Inglese
Argomenti: Finanza pubblica, enti locali, pubblica amministrazione
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