Energy

Advanced geothermal energy runs but EU underestimates potential

According to Ember, new-generation underground energy could cover almost half of the EU's electricity needs now met by fossil fuels

by Elena Comelli

In Baviera la società canadese Eavor ha fatto partire un impianto commerciale che non ricava energia elettrica da acqua calda sotterranea, ma la produce grazie a un sistema a ciclo chiuso che sfrutta rocce calde e secche

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Faced with yet another energy crisis due to the blockage of fossil fuel supplies, which are once again proving to be unreliable, there is a growing need to develop alternative sources in order to alleviate dependence on hydrocarbon imports. Next-generation geothermal energy (Egs in English, or 'Enhanced Geothermal Energy') could help Europe free itself from its dependence, covering at a competitive cost almost half of Europe's electricity needs today from fossil fuels. This is revealed in a new report published by the independent think tank Ember, according to which 43 gigawatts of high-enthalpy geothermal capacity (the kind used to produce electricity) could be developed in the EU at a cost of less than €100/MWh and thus be comparable to fossil-fired plants, with a production potential of 301 terawatt-hours of electricity per year, or 42 per cent of the production from coal and gas recorded last year.

Even Washington believes it

Geothermal energy is a continuous renewable source, not intermittent, and can also contribute to thermal storage. Hence the global revival, on which even Chris Wright, the Trump administration's new energy secretary, who is generally opposed to renewables, has spoken out: in a speech in Washington in early March, Wright called for strong growth in geothermal, arguing that it 'could help drive artificial intelligence, manufacturing, manufacturing returns, and halt the rise in electricity prices'.

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Investments +80% in one year

According to the International Energy Agency's latest report, funding for advanced geothermal power in 2025 has in fact reached almost $2.2 billion, an increase of 80% year-on-year and 280% compared to 2018. The growth is being driven by technological innovation, the entry of new financial players and an increasing demand for continuous and programmable electricity.

More refined technologies

In just a few years, the industry has refined its soil analysis and drilling technologies, as well as heat extraction technologies, opening up a range of new possibilities. This is partly due to the fossil industry's recent know-how in horizontal drilling and partly to the artificial intelligence used today to analyse geological data and optimise site searches.

The latest innovations have not only extended the depth of the drillings well beyond the current 2,000 metres - it is already possible to exploit resources at depths of 4-5,000 metres and the aim is to reach 7,000 metres - but they also manage to create the necessary permeability, thanks to the injection of pressurised fluids, which widen natural micro-fractures, opening channels where the thermovector fluid can circulate. New-generation geothermal energy does not even need to find high-temperature fluids in the subsoil in order to function - as happens in the traditional sites of Larderello and Monte Amiata, already exploited since the end of the 19th century - but injects them cold to collect the heat from the subsoil along horizontal perforations and then extract it with another pipeline, often through closed-circuit systems, where the fluids circulate without coming into contact with the rock.

In Germany a closed-loop plant

Systems of this type greatly expand the range of potential sites, far beyond those already exploited on the territory of Italia - known to be one of the continent's 'hottest' - so much so that the first new-generation geothermal power plant in Europe went into operation a few months ago in Bavaria, where the Canadian company Eavor started up a commercial plant that does not draw electricity from underground hot water, but produces it thanks to a closed-cycle system that exploits hot, dry rock.

The United States is following suit and may soon overtake Europe: Houston-based Fervo Energy, after a pilot project in Nevada, is building a 500-megawatt geothermal power plant of this type in Utah, with the first 100 megawatts operational by 2026. Many projects in the US and Canada are extending the methods first pioneered in Europe, supported by targeted incentives and private investment. Fervo, for example, has already confidentially submitted its listing documentation, aiming for a possible debut as early as this summer to finance large-scale projects, with an estimated valuation of between two and three billion dollars.

New leading countries in Europe

Europe has played a central role in the development of geothermal and in 2024 had 147 power plants in operation (including those in Turkey), producing around 20 terawatt-hours of electricity from an installed capacity of just over 3.5 gigawatts (one fifth of global geothermal capacity). Most of the production comes from Italia, Iceland and Turkey, which together account for almost all European geothermal production. Beyond these established markets, however, activity is expanding: several countries have already started small-scale geothermal electricity production, including Croatia, France, Germany, Hungary, Austria and Portugal, while around 50 new-generation geothermal power plants are currently under development, with Germany leading the way in terms of number of active projects.

Italy still lagging behind

It is unfortunate that Italia is stuck at 0.9 gigawatts of geothermal capacity since 2014, corresponding to just 5.2 terawatt-hours per year of production, 1.7 per cent of national electricity demand. However, even in the EU, the development of geothermal energy remains slow, increasing the risk that expansion will take place elsewhere in the future. Already today, according to Ember's report, the geothermal pipeline in the United States is more robust than in Europe, with 5.4 gigawatts already under development compared to the 2.4 planned in Europe. A forward-looking policy is needed to correct this.

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