Germany

Afd breaks the 40 per cent threshold in the polls in Saxony-Anhalt

Alternative für Deutschland is preparing to triumph in the September elections and could win an absolute majority and government in a Land where it is classified as right-wing extremist. One year after taking office, national support for the Merz executive sinks to 11%

by Gianluca Di Donfrancesco

7 May 2026

Il candidato di punta di Afd in Sassonia-Anhalt, Ulrich Siegmund Reuters

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Alternative für Deutschland no longer stands still: while on a national level it leads with 27% of voting intentions, with a wide margin over the Union of Conservatives (Cdu-Csu), in Saxony-Anhalt it has broken through the 40% threshold and is preparing to triumph in the autumn regional elections.

Towards the vote

Of course, 6 September, the election date, is a long way off. Saxony-Anhalt, then, has less than 2.2 million inhabitants and is only one of Germany's 16 Länder; moreover, one of the five that made up East Germany, where Afd's strength is nothing new. However, four months do not seem enough to allow significant recoveries for rival parties, least of all for those supporting the executive in Berlin, the Cdu-Csu and the Social Democrats (Spd), in the midst of a consensus crisis.

If the polls would then confirm the weakening of the pursuers, the distribution of seats could hand Afd an absolute majority in the small parliament and the government of a Land, in which, by the way, the regional team has been classified as 'right-wing extremist' by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution. For the first time, a political force, walking on the edge of banishment, would enter a control room, jumping over the firewall that has so far excluded it. Earthquake.

And so the 41% in the Infratest dimap poll, published on 7 May, even though it relates to voting intentions in a single Land, is enough to raise the level of fibrillation in the already restless chambers of Berlin politics and weaken Chancellor Friedrich Merz even further: his party, the Union, has fallen to 24-22%, but according to a survey conducted by Forsa for RTL/ntv, one year after taking office, support for the government is only 11%, while 87% of respondents reject it.

Merz's troubles

Merz is being blamed a lot, even from his own party ranks, unnerved by the haemorrhaging of consensus, which makes the Kanzler's brusque style less and less digestible and the difficult coexistence with the SPD, which he blames for the lack of incisiveness in government action.

In the meantime, membership is dwindling: according to German media reports, the general secretary of the Cdu, Carsten Linnemann, has sounded the alarm about a drop-off that now affects several tens of thousands of members.

For the Social Democrats the situation is even worse. In Saxony-Anhalt, where the CDU has fallen to 26% of the consensus, the SPD is even at 7%, pulled even by the Linke (12%). No other party exceeds the 5% threshold.

The scenarios

With a four-party parliament, Afd's 41% would not be enough to obtain an absolute majority, pursued by its leading candidate, Ulrich Siegmund. The Cdu excludes alliances with Alternative für Deutschland and Linke, and would have no choice but to accept a minority government with the SPD, even though it knows that it would only be able to hold on thanks to the external support of Linke itself, as is already the case in neighbouring Saxony.

If, on the other hand, the SPD fails to break its neck and falls below the 5% threshold, Alternative für Deutschland would have an absolute majority in a three-party parliament.

As is now also the case in the western Länder, and as we saw in the recent elections in Baden-Württemberg, where Afd was the most voted party among workers, the ultra-right is able to intercept the votes of the working classes who feel threatened by the crisis in industry and who do not see the SPD as a reference point.

Only a few days ago, two car component manufacturers announced the closure of plants in Saxony-Anhalt, with the loss of about a thousand jobs. A crisis that echoes that of the chemical industry, which is also important in the state.