Africa is growing faster than expected, but poverty is not falling. The AI unknown
The jump in GDP to +4.3 per cent in 2026 does not translate into better conditions. Inflation and debt are weighing heavily, against the backdrop of the major digital challenge
from our correspondent Alberto Magnani
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NAIROBI – Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is demonstrating its resilience to regional shocks and is set to rise from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 4.3 per cent in 2026. The uncertainties stem from cyclical and structural vulnerabilities, ranging from concerns over the situation in the Middle East to a long-standing unresolved issue in Africa’s development: the gap between macroeconomic growth and the actual living conditions of the population, a fragility exacerbated by factors such as inflation, the debt burden and the uncertain prospects of artificial intelligence.
This is the outlook outlined in the Africa Economic Update, a biennial report by the World Bank on the current state and future scenarios of the economies of the sub-Saharan region. The assessment in the latest edition ranges from positive notes on the stability of the continent’s economies to warning signs looming over their growth.
‘Resilience’ and threats to growth
The ‘resilience’ of sub-Saharan economies is reflected in the growth forecast for 2026 as well, driven by factors such as falling inflation, the consolidation of public finances, robust domestic demand and global demand for critical minerals driven by the energy transition and investment in artificial intelligence.
The clouds on the horizon stem from two different fronts. In the immediate term, the continental landscape is beset by the fallout from the Middle East crisis, uncertainties over trade dynamics, the repercussions of Donald Trump’s cuts to aid, and two ongoing emergencies: climate shocks and security threats that pervade the continent.
Looking ahead, the expansion of the African economy continues to be hampered by its inability to have a tangible impact on and ‘trickle down’ to the actual living conditions of the population. “Growth is not translating into a significant reduction in poverty or sufficient job creation,” the report states, highlighting a rise in per capita GDP from 1.6 per cent in 2025 to 1.8 per cent in 2026: too little to alleviate poverty or stimulate employment growth in line with the demographic momentum of a continent that will be home to 330 million people under the age of 24 by 2030.
