After Vannacci, Meloni's crossroads between extreme right and new DC
Chasing the general could prove to be a mistake: the premier could dissipate the political investment towards DC-model 'white collateralism'
Key points
The 'new conservatism' of Giorgia Meloni, as it has been christened in the foreign press, may be forced to change gear. After the farewell of General Roberto Vannacci to the League, Italy's centre-right is at a crossroads: the choice between radicalisation and normalisation, that is, between chasing the extreme flank and slipping the agenda towards the centre of the spectrum.
The risk of a shift to the right of the political centre of gravity
"From a general point of view," explains Fulvio Lorefice, political risk analyst at Bistoncini Partners, "the birth of Futuro Nazionale could represent a further stage in the shift to the right of the political barycentre in Italia: Fratelli d'Italia and Lega, at the outcome of the 2022 elections, had 184 deputies (equal to 46% of the assembly's components), while in 1994 there were 226 (equal to 35.87%). Assuming that Futuro Nazionale stands outside the current majority, as assured first and foremost by the League, the first risk is the radicalisation of the current majority and within it, more specifically, of Fratelli d'Italia'.
The costs of radicalisation
But chasing Vannacci on the terrain of "radicalism" - first and foremost on the issues of security, immigration and support for Ukraine - could invalidate, according to Lorefice, "the great political investment made by Meloni in 'white collateralism' (Cisl, Coldiretti, Communion and Liberation) with the positive return that has ensued". Because the premier's ability to cover the centre area without leaving room for effective competition from the right, such as that of Matteo Salvini in the last three years, was undeniable.
A Trumpised right wing all the way?
The other big question is how far the new Vanaccian movement can establish itself as an attempt to Trumpise the Italian right. 'Meloni's relationship with the Trumpian galaxy,' Lorefice comments, 'has so far been almost a win-win. That is, she has benefited from the phenomenon as long as it has been profitable in terms of consensus, limiting herself to importing circumscribed and mostly cosmetic elements of the Maga proposal and imagery'. But in the face of the most extreme positions - the threat to annex Greenland, for example - Meloni distanced herself, embracing with her German and French partners European pragmatism in defence of Denmark and Greenland's territorial sovereignty. "Vannacci's launching of a political bid, on the other hand, could force Meloni and Fratelli d'Italia to come to terms to the end with the Trumpian universe and its political fallout, with the costs one can imagine."
"Crumble the potential consensus" of the Vannaccians
Some counter-moves will be inevitable, however, from here on, also considering the time that is left before the 2027 general elections, which allows Vannacci to organise his troops in Parliament and in the territories and to grow. "It would not be surprising," Lorefice argues, "to see the promotion ex novo of political proposals, inside and outside the centre-right coalition, similar to Futuro Nazionale, with the aim of 'crumbling' this area of potential consensus and 'draining' or 'diverting' votes to the policies. How much this area weighs, however, remains to be seen.
