The price of agricultural land is rising, but an oversupply is casting a shadow over the future. Record prices for Barolo vineyards

The survey paints a picture of a largely balanced property market, with demand generally outstripping supply for land in sales. The number of transactions has remained stable compared with 2024 with farmers remaining firmly the most active buyers, followed by non-agricultural entrepreneurs and, some way behind, other private investors. Among sellers, on the other hand, the most common are those who have ceased farming or are about to do so, other private owners non-entrepreneurs, and finally those who have inherited the land but do not intend to farm it. A quarter of those surveyed report that sales take place without the involvement of an estate agent, but transactions concluded with the support of consultants and estate agents are also common.

In the immediate future, market operators do not foresee any substantial changes to the market landscape, but over 40 per cent of those surveyed indicate a significant increase in supply, often linked to the cessation of agricultural activities in the most marginal areas. In 2025, the number of sales of non-buildable agricultural land recorded by the Notarial Association stood at over 180,000, an increase of 3.6 per cent compared with the previous year, confirming the positive trend also observed in the CREA’s direct survey. Non-buildable agricultural land accounts for almost 13 per cent of all registered property transactions, second only to buildings (76 per cent). The other two categories relating to land, available in the Notaries’ statistics – namely, land suitable for building and land that is neither suitable for building nor agricultural – each account for less than 3 per cent; consequently, the number of transactions is considerably lower than that for agricultural land, but the trend compared with 2024 is equally positive.

The Bank of Italy’s statistics on loans to the agricultural sector with a maturity of over one year confirm a slight reduction (-2.1 per cent) in the stock of credit allocated to investment. In particular, for the purchase of rural property, which includes land, the change compared with 2024 was -3.7 per cent, the same decline seen for buildings. Only the volume of loans granted for the purchase of machinery and equipment remained stable, a sign – as the report notes – of a greater focus on investments aimed at the structural modernisation of farms rather than the expansion of land area, which can be achieved in a less restrictive manner through leasing. The contraction in outstanding balances was more pronounced in the Central regions (-6 per cent), whilst in the Islands there was a slight increase in the total (+0.9 per cent), resulting from an opposing trend between the -7.1 per cent for buildings and the +7.4 per cent for machinery.

In 2025, too, the agricultural land rental market remained largely stable. Rents remained generally unchanged, with localised increases in the most productive areas and increasingly selective demand, focused primarily on land irrigated, consolidated, easily accessible and suitable for mechanisation. Land designated for specialised production continues to be particularly sought after, whilst marginal and less productive land faces greater difficulties in finding buyers, even when rents are low.

Demand is driven primarily by the more established farms, livestock farmers and contractors, who are keen to expand the areas they farm. Supply is fuelled by the closure of smaller farms where there is no next generation to take over, whilst the reduced profitability of certain crops and rising operating costs are making tenants more selective.

At a regional level, in the North, demand remains strong, particularly in the irrigated plains, livestock-farming districts and areas with a higher degree of specialisation in production. Rents remain largely stable, with localised increases in the most competitive areas and signs of a slowdown in the less profitable sectors. The market remains active, but there is growing focus on land quality and the economic viability of leases. In central Italia, the situation remains stable, with more buoyant demand for irrigated arable land and specialised crops. The economic conditions of production and alignment with CAP support schemes are influencing negotiations, favouring, in some contexts, agreements of shorter duration. Finally, in the South, the market is generally less dynamic, with significant differences between the most productive agricultural districts and inland areas. Demand is concentrated on irrigated land and areas used for horticultural, fruit and vineyard production, whilst the availability of marginal land is increasing, accentuating the differences in rental rates. Looking ahead, market participants anticipate that current trends will largely continue: leasing will remain a key tool for the expansion and the reorganisation of agricultural holdings, with sustained demand for the most productive land and a possible increase in supply in marginal areas, where the cessation of activities could exacerbate the difficulties in finding buyers for the land.