AI and high-tech drive Chinese exports: heading for a record surplus in 2026
The country’s economy continues to depend on strong external demand, which is set to drive it towards a trade surplus exceeding the record figure of 1.2 trillion dollars set in 2025
China is recapitalising its financial system to bolster weak domestic demand, but there is nothing to be done: the country’s economy still depends, as always, on strong external demand, which is capable of steering it towards a trade surplus exceeding the record $1.2 trillion set in 2025.
A disastrous combination that prevents China from shifting its growth model from import-export to domestic consumption, thereby absorbing overcapacity and mitigating the risks of dependence on foreign markets.
In August too, according to figures from the Chinese customs authorities, exports rose by 25 per cent compared with 2025 and imports by 28.2 per cent, widening the trade surplus to $119.1 billion and bringing the total for the first eight months to $806 billion. Half of the exports are driven by the artificial intelligence technology sector, combined with procurement driven by the variables of the negotiations on tariffs.
The trade surplus with the United States has risen to $29.18 billion from $28 billion in July, with Chinese exports to the United States up by 34.4 per cent year-on-year, outpacing the 17.8 per cent growth in imports.
The key events of the coming weeks
The summit at the end of the month in the US between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is fast approaching, as is the one between China and the European Union in October, two key events for Beijing, and these figures risk reigniting the trade disputes that are intended to be defused, including the fragile truce signed with the US, which expires in November. The two governments are now exploring reciprocal cuts to tariffs on goods worth $30 billion. Chinese exports of rare earths rose month-on-month in August, but remained well below the monthly average since the start of the year. Imports of crude oil, by contrast, fell by 23.4 per cent year-on-year in terms of volume.
