Energy: AIE: the diesel market will remain ‘tight’ in 2027
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts an improvement in global diesel production in early 2027, but this will not be enough to offset the deficit accumulated in 2026 and “the market will remain tight in 2027”.
The situation in the diesel market, where prices are rising sharply, also depends on a “resumption of oil product supplies from the Middle East”; otherwise, “further reductions in demand” may be necessary, entailing “significant economic costs”, the Paris-based organisation states in its monthly report on the global oil market.
The IEA notes that global diesel markets “experienced unusual strains in the third quarter of 2026” due to the war in the Middle East and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, during which energy infrastructure – particularly Russian refineries – is increasingly being targeted. “This situation has deprived global diesel markets of essential reserves ahead of the winter peak in demand,” comments the agency, noting that “even if refinery utilisation rates were to improve rapidly by the end of the year, the supply of diesel will remain insufficient to meet demand in the fourth quarter of 2026”. The replenishment of stocks is therefore considered “unlikely” before the second half of 2027, and the market will remain tight, given that numerous sectors are heavily reliant on this fuel.
As regards oil, having long predicted that global demand in 2026 would remain higher than in the previous year, the agency has for several months now been forecasting a year-on-year decline.
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