Digital platforms

Airbnb, not just rentals: more revenue from services pending advertising

The group invests to diversify the offer and counteract competition. The risk of mass tourism in several cities

by Vittorio Carlini

(Reuters)

6' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

6' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

On the one hand - also in the wake of the post-Cvid long wave - investments of up to 250 million to push the business forward. On the other, the expanding business. All this with - despite the company's optimism - the risks of the possible slowdown in global tourism and restrictive regulations in various cities. This is how, broadly speaking, one can describe the activity - and the context in which it is embedded - of Airbnb.

ESERCIZI A CONFRONTO

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The Profit and Loss Account

The digital marketplace platform, which connects hosts (people offering accommodation or experiences) with guests (people seeking accommodation or experiences), recently released its fourth-quarter and full-year figures for 2024. The US-based group was characterised by rising revenues and profitability in the last quarter. Revenues stood at USD 2.48 billion, up 12 per cent year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA, for its part, came in at EUR 765 million (it had been EUR 738 million a year earlier). Finally, net profit came in at 461 million, compared to a loss of 349 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 (in the latter case, however, the company had accounted for the one-off tax of around one billion). Overall, both the top line of the income statement and profitability beat consensus estimates. This was also, and above all, the consequence of the increase in bookings of nights and so-called 'experiences' (from guided tours to local cooking lessons): these - again between last October and the end of December - reached 111 million (+12% over 2023). The growth positively surprised the market, so much so that in the session following the publication of the accounts Airbnb grew by 14.2%;

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L’EBITDA RETTIFICATO

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The past exercise

On closer inspection, the trend for the entire year is more articulated. 2024 turnover increased to EUR 11.2 billion (+12% year-on-year). Profitability, on the other hand, was characterised by a twofold dynamic: on the one hand, annual operating profits increased to 2.5 billion; but, on the other hand, net profit slowed to 2.7 billion (full-year 2023 had been 4.8 billion). This more 'controversial' trend was reflected in the share prices themselves. In 2024, Airbnb's stock, according to the Bloomberg terminal, reached - in March - an annual high of 168.18 dollars, only to slip to a low of 113 at the start of August. Subsequently, the shares recovered, but the result - still in 2024 - remains negative (-2.2%). Finally: since the beginning of the year - thanks to the jump following the publication of the latest quarterly report - Airbnb has risen 20.2%.

LA MARGINALITÀ

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Investments

So far, some considerations regarding profit and loss figures and stock market prices. The saver's attention, however, has turned to the company's own statements on future strategies. On this front, Airbnb has indicated that it is ready to invest, in 2025, 200 - 250 million dollars for new features and services related to the social object. These are moves in respect of which, in order to better understand them, it is useful to recall the group's business model. The company, precisely, is a peer-to-peer digital marketplace and acts as an intermediary, without directly owning the accommodations or experiences offered on the platform. The group earns money, primarily, through commissions charged to both hosts and guests for each completed transaction. In addition, additional services (e.g. AirCover insurance protection) and so-called 'experiences' are offered. Finally: Airbnb manages the cash acquired through bookings, including by making financial investments.

Well: the intention is to create new services and products. In the conference call on the last quarter, the company - pointing out that the first market releases will take place in May - did not want to offer any particular indications. However, among other things, there is talk of expanding the experience sector on the one hand; and, on the other hand, of offering new services. Thus, one could think of professional flat cleaning, which can be booked on the platform; or, of establishing partnerships with local supermarkets, in order to realise general food deliveries. Not only that. Beyond the described topics, on the table - more generally - is also the possibility of introducing advertising on the platform. Precisely on this last topic, the company said that it is not a question of 'if', but of 'when'. An opportunity that could easily - is the indication - be worth a billion dollars and which, however, is not on the calendar for 2025.

FLUSSI DI CASSA TRIMESTRALI

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Geographies

From product and service development to geographical expansion. The company is present in more than 220 countries. However, the business is concentrated in five main markets: United States, United Kingdom, Canada, France and Australia. States which - according to the company - account for about 70% of gross bookings. Against this, Airbnb has focused its attention on markets that are outside the 'magnificent 5' and that offer potential for expansion. One example? Brazil. Over the past two years, the company has made significant efforts - particularly on brand marketing - in the Carioca state. A commitment that has borne fruit. Another front - among others - is Japan. Here, in the last quarter of 2024, the brand strategy was launched. Awareness of it, however, is rather low. Therefore, the time to achieve proper economies of scale might be a little longer than in Brazil. That said: the markets - outside of the 'magnificent 5' - targeted by Airbnb - grew at about twice the rate of the so-called core markets in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Tourism and international crises

All as easy as turning the key in the (rented) house door, then? The reality is more complicated. Some experts point out that geopolitical uncertainty - linked to the new Trumpian order, for example - and the slowdown in many economies could lead to a slowdown in global tourism (on which the company's business is based). True! According to the World Tourism Barometer (Wtb), there were approximately 1.4 billion international tourists in 2024 (+11% over 2023). Moreover: in the current year, cross-border tourist arrivals are expected to increase by 3-5% compared to 2024. Having said that, however - apart from the fact that the Wtb itself predicts a slowdown in flows - the fear of some analysts is that the weakness in tourist travel may materialise. This could have an impact on companies in the sector, including Airbnb.

The forecast

That Airbnb which, it should be pointed out, gave estimates for the first quarter of 2025 and for the whole year. Between the beginning of January and the end of March, the group expects revenues to rise by 4-6% (7-9% without the impact of currency exchange rates). This is a weak dynamic, which, however, suffers three percentage points from the 'calendar factor'.

Thus, the increase  -  excluding this last element and the impact of currency crosses - would be 10-12%. Adjusted EBITDA, for its part, is estimated to be lower than in the first quarter of 2024. Without the impact of calendar and currencies, however, it would remain flat. Longer term, then, the company expects the adjusted EBITDA margin of 2025 to be at least 34.5% (lower than that of 2023). This is a figure that is affected, above all, by planned investments: up to the third quarter on the margin, while the benefits of new products will start from the end of the second quarter. The scenario was viewed with disappointment by some experts: they do not like the margin squeeze, in the absence of details on what the company will do. Other experts, on the other hand, considered that the adjusted Ebitda margin level - even in the presence of disbursements of up to 250 million - shows the robustness of the business.

Finally: the regulatory issue. It is well known that in several tourist destinations - Venice, for example - mass tourism has been the subject of strong criticism for some time. A context in which -among other things- restrictive regulations have arisen with respect to activities such as those linked to Airbnb. Turns of events that can be a sword of Damocles for business. The company does not share the doubt. The group said during the last conference call that 'more and more cities are thinking of you as a partner and (...) as a solution to their problems'. An example? The last Olympics in Paris. There was a shortage of accommodation for tourists there and Airbnb, in agreement with local authorities and the IOC, 'was able to accommodate 700,000 guests'.

If this is the scenario, then what is the stock market situation of the group's shares? According to the Bloomberg terminal, the price-earnings ratio of the prospective stock on 2025 is 36.4 times. That is to say: a high level. Other indicators - from the non-GAAP forward PEG (2.7 as of 19/2/2025) to the Ev/Ebitda (21.45) - are, according to SeekingAlpha, higher than those of the reference segment. True! This is a common situation for many technology companies. And yet, the do-it-yourselfer is obliged to take a very cautious approach.

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