Air transport

Airlines' strategies against high fuel prices

Alternative hubs to fly to the East, but skyrocketing prices. European carriers ask the EU to reduce the use of SAF

by Mara Monti

20 March 2026

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Key points

Alternative hubs for flying to the East
Travel demand remains strong
Airline strategies with high fuel prices
Carriers ask EU to reduce obligations for the use of SAF

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

In Europe, travel demand is growing, the Middle East is stagnating and the US is holding its ground. Ahead of the upcoming Easter holidays, European airlines are reviewing their plans in light of the conflict in Iran and deciding which destinations to focus on. The Old Continent is the best positioned as intra-European short-haul flights are expected to grow in capacity by 4% in Q1, 7% in Q2 and 6% in Q3, according to analysts. Figures that could change as the conflict evolves if airlines were to reallocate aircraft used in the Middle East to European flights. As in the case of Wizz Air, the Hungarian low-cost airline that is moving planes to Europe from riskier bases in the Middle East.

Alternative hubs for flying to the East

With fewer flights from the Gulf countries due to the massive cancellations suffered by the main hubs of Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi, other hubs are emerging as alternatives for those who need to fly to the East. An advantage that, coupled with the lack of cancellations, is leading to double-digit increases in airline ticket prices.

The start-up Maiora Solutions, which specialises in pricing and revenue management, has calculated on a panel of 30 airports in the Middle East that on average the cost of flights to the Middle East has increased by 36% in the last two weeks with peaks of 114% for business class connections from London to Amman in Jordan and 33% in economy. Jordan is exploiting its position as a compulsory gateway for those needing to travel to Israel just as Muscat airport is emerging as an alternative gateway to the East: to fly from London to Oman's capital, the cost of a ticket is currently 34% higher than a fortnight ago. In Turkey, Istanbul is the best equipped hub as an alternative to Dubai as shown by the 44% increase in airfares. In this rewriting of the skies, Athens is also playing its cards so much so that flights from London have risen 39% in the last fortnight.

Demand for travel remains strong

Airlines are warning that there will be no shortage of price increases on European routes due to soaring oil prices. The warning was issued by the major European airlines, brought together in Brussels by the association Airlines for Europe (A4U). Director General of Iata, the airline association, Willie Walsh is positive that global demand for travel remains robust for now, but airlines could reduce capacity if the conflict continues with the resulting shortage of jet fuel. 'It will be a structural change. We will have to consider how the industry will redistribute capacity and how to protect ourselves from any fuel supply problems," Walsh said, adding that in this conflict "there will be no winners or losers". Jet fuel prices have doubled since the US and Israel launched attacks against Iran last month.

For airlines that do not use hedging contracts to cover fuel cost increases, such as US carriers United, Delta, and American Airlines, the additional costs are in the billions of dollars. The Scandinavian airline SAS, which does not hedge against currency risk, announced this week the cancellation of about a thousand flights due to the increase in fuel prices.

Airline strategies with high fuel prices

The strategy in such cases is to book flights in advance to avoid additional costs. This is the suggestion made by the CEO of the Lufthansa group himself, Carsten Spohr, who, speaking in Brussels together with other leaders of the airline industry, said he had added 40 flights to Asia to compensate for the inconvenience suffered by the Gulf airlines. In turn, Air France-KLM and SAS have already announced that they will have to increase ticket prices and cut destinations to Asia, while for Finnair the risk is the depletion of fuel supplies due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

In the carriers' strategies, there are those such as British Airways who are adding more flights to destinations such as the Caribbean, while Lufthansa is preparing to launch a new route to Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia. In a strong position is the low-cost Ryanair, which is not exposed to the East. On the contrary, according to its CEO Michael O'Leary, European tourists could opt for destinations closer to home to avoid the long intercontinental flights to the Middle East.

Carriers ask the EU to reduce requirements for the use of SAF

In order to strike back against high oil prices, airlines have asked the EU to abolish the introduction of quotas for synthetic SAF (Sustainable aviation fuel), which, according to the EU regulation, must be used in increasing proportions from 2030 onwards. Since last year, the EU has mandated that 2 per cent of the fuel be SAF, a percentage that is set to rise to 6 per cent in 2030, while synthetic SAF (eSAF) will account for 1.2 per cent from 2030, rising to 5 per cent in 2035. The difference between SAF and eSAF lies in the raw material and the production process, although both are sustainable aviation fuels designed to reduce CO2 emissions: in the former case, production is from used cooking oil or animal waste, costs three to five times more than conventional aviation fuel, and covers only 0.3% of the global aviation fuel supply.

Sustainable synthetic aviation fuel (eSAF) is produced from renewable energies such as captured carbon dioxide or green hydrogen. It emits less carbon than bio-based sustainable synthetic fuel, but is much more expensive to produce. The problem is that the availability of synthetic aviation fuel is limited and the planned production facilities are unlikely to come on stream in time to meet the obligation. "We are calling for the obligation to use eSAF to be delayed until it is actually available," said Kenton Jarvis, ceo of easyJet, at a press conference.

Despite the carriers' request, Europe was quick to reject any postponement, stating that the climate targets remain in place: 'We have a path to follow,' said Apostolos Tzitzikostas, European Commissioner for Sustainable Transport and Tourism. 'We continue to pursue our targets, the industry must invest in renewable energy.