US government bonds

Alarm bells ringing on Treasuries: yields soar to 4.50 per cent

Alarm bells ring for Treasuries, the US government bonds hitherto regarded as a safe haven in times of market turbulence. In recent days, yields on ten-year US bonds have suddenly risen

Il segretario Usa al Tesoro Scott Bessent

2' min read

2' min read

Alarm bells went off on Treasuries, the US government bonds hitherto considered a safe haven in turbulent market phases. In recent days yields on ten-year US bonds have risen suddenly, rising from 3.95 per cent to 4.50 per cent this morning, before retracing in the afternoon. Sales also affected European government bonds, with ten-year BTp yields rising in a few days from 3.70 per cent to 3.90 per cent.

A sign of tension and distrust in the most liquid financial instrument on the planet. Analysts are questioning the causes of this surge and above all the origin of the massive sales.

Loading...

The technical explanation

.

A more technical explanation points to the closure of so-called 'basis trade' positions, financial transactions carried out by hedge funds that exploit price differences between Treasuries and their futures contracts. By reducing risk and exiting these trades, hedge funds sold Treasuries, putting markets under pressure.

The political explanation

A second, more political explanation sees in the sharp rise in yields during the Asian trading day the possibility of China dumping most of its US bonds.

China is the second largest foreign holder of US debt: it held $761 billion in Treasuries in January. Japan is the largest foreign holder with $1.08 trillion.

Unusually high volumes

.

Whatever the cause, it is a fact that the US bond market is under great strain and this is a potentially destabilising element for all financial markets. Treasury trading volumes in Asia and Europe were around USD 18 billion today, more than four times the average daily volumes of USD 3.5-4 billion.

Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers wrote in a post on X that "this highly unusual pattern suggests a general aversion to US assets in global financial markets. Investors treat us as a problematic emerging market."

Bessent: non-systemic phenomenon

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sought to downplay the T-bond turmoil. "There's one of these deleveraging convulsions that's happening right now in the markets," Bessent said, adding that he has witnessed these tensions quite often in his decades-long hedge fund career. "It's in the fixed income market. There are some very large leveraged players who are taking losses and need to deleverage. I think there is nothing systemic about this, but that it is an uncomfortable but normal deleveraging that is happening in the bond market."

In the Italian evening, the US Treasury sold USD 39 billion of 10-year Treasuries at a yield of 4.435%, upwards. Analysts reported sustained demand.

Copyright reserved ©
Loading...

Brand connect

Loading...

Newsletter

Notizie e approfondimenti sugli avvenimenti politici, economici e finanziari.

Iscriviti