Clash of powers

All the doubts of Trump and Xi on the eve of the face-off

White House confirms talks in Korea to discuss trade, but also rare earths and Ukraine. Beijing cautious: 'Many bilaterals, we are working with the US'

by Luca Veronese - New York

Donald Trump e Xi Jinping in un incontro del 2019, al G20 di Osaka

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Xi Jinping will be in South Korea from 30 October to 1 November, at the invitation of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, to take part in the Apec summit in Gyeongju. The confirmation by the Chinese authorities does not clearly relate to the talks - repeatedly announced and just as many times denied - between Xi and Donald Trump, but it is already an opening.

From the White House they seem to have no doubts, the face-to-face will take place and as the US president declared, with his usual emphasis, "it will lead to a fantastic agreement, fair for all, a great agreement", on tariffs and international trade, on rare earths, on chips and technology sharing, on soya, on fentanyl. As well as - at least in Trump's aspirations - on Vladimir Purin's sanctions on Russia's oil and on how to stop the conflict in Ukraine.

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On the Chinese side, there is more caution. Beijing's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Guo Jiakun, limited himself to explaining that Xi Jinping has bilaterals on his agenda with various interlocutors. And when asked explicitly about the meeting between the leaders of the two major global powers, he gave a matter-of-fact answer: 'Beijing and Washington,' he said, 'are in close contact regarding a meeting between the two presidents.

The willingness of the United States is clear, China's opening has been there, but anything can still happen between now and next Thursday. Trump's tendency to get uptight when he has to take rejection is well known. And Xi's China has now learned as much to respond blow by blow to American threats as it has to not let itself be flattered by the tycoon's blandishments.

Much has changed since Trump's first term in the White House. "In the past, China was unprepared for Trump's pressure tactics, now Xi is prepared and knows how to respond. He knows Trump wants a good relationship with him and has realised that Trump respects strength, not concessions," says Kurt Campbell , former deputy secretary of state under Joe Biden and now president of the consulting firm Asia Group.

The issues that are to be addressed in Korea are of paramount importance to both countries and, partly for this reason, have generated very high tensions in recent months to the worrying escalation of the last week.

Trump had announced 'a massive increase in tariffs' against China, in response to Beijing's decision to introduce further restrictions on rare earth exports. But Trump's threats are now blunted with China controlling about 90 per cent of the world's refined rare earths and can, if it wants, disrupt global production of almost any product with advanced technology: from phones to computers, from cars to missiles. 'Beijing is aware that it has strong influence and is not afraid to use it,' says Jimmy Goodrich , an expert on China and technology at the University of California.

Trump himself, taken by surprise by Xi's move on rare earths, admitted with some frustration: 'We are now in a trade war with China'. The outcomes of the new round of talks that has just begun in Malaysia, at the Asean summit, are awaited: the Chinese delegation will be led by Vice-Premier He Lifeng, the American delegation by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The minimum objective is to create the conditions for an armed truce between the two countries, which Trump and Xi will be able to confirm in their meeting.

Beijing, at least formally, insists on dialogue and cooperation as the "only right choice" for China and the U.S., as Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao pointed out. "We can find ways to resolve our respective concerns, we can find the right way to coexist and promote the healthy, stable and sustainable development of economic relations. China," Wang said, "has always opposed decoupling and will continue to defend the security and stability of global production and supply chains.

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