Amplifon slips with sector, for Kepler target markets still weak

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Heavy session for Amplifon on the Italian Stock Exchange, where the stock of the company active in the hearing solutions market has surrendered more than three points, while the FTSE MIB is up slightly. Fuelling the selling is a report by Kepler Cheuvreux, which still sees benchmark markets as asphyxiated. In the morning, substantial declines also for other sector players in Europe: -2.66% Demant, -1.29% Gn Store Nord in Copenhagen, and -2.64% Sonova in Zurich.

Ahead of the release of Amplifon's Q4 2025 figures, set for 4 March, Kepler expects target markets to remain "weak" and unlikely to show "clear signs of convergence" towards historical growth rates. Nevertheless, analysts still expect a sequential improvement in organic growth (+2.2% versus -0.3% in the first nine months).

Experts therefore remain 'cautious' about the speed of entry in 2026 and overall growth, which will be weighed down by 'persistent foreign exchange headwinds' (with an unfavourable effect of 3.6 per cent,) and the rationalisation of the shop network, which, according to Kepler,will limit the contribution of mergers and acquisitions. The fifth anniversary of the post-Covid year, the report also notes, 'could stimulate repeat purchases, even though repayment after five years is not available in all public markets'.

Thus, analysts cut the expected earnings per share for the financial years 2025-2027 by an average of 8 per cent due to slowing sales, increased depreciation and amortisation and financial expenses. The price target was also cut to EUR 15.3 per share from EUR 16.7, although the Hold rating was confirmed. "Although the multiple remains compressed relative to Amplifon's history," the analysts note, "a clear and persistent acceleration in revenue growth is required for a rating upgrade.

In detail, organic growth in Q4 is expected to be slightly above 2%, mainly driven by the Emea region, with France expected to post high single-digit growth, with a favourable comparison basis. Elsewhere, persistent weakness is expected to keep year-on-year growth in the range of 1/2%. For the financial year 2025, the adjusted ebitda margin is projected at 22.9% (compared to guidance of about 23%), while for the years 2026/27, revenues are seen declining by about 3%. Estimates indicate organic growth of 3.6% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027, with M&A contributing 2% and 2.4%, respectively.