Angelo Moratti: 'Excesses on stock markets, crypto and AI can trigger a systemic crisis'

What are the risks of the cryptocurrency market?

The crypto bubble has expanded especially since Trump's election. In fact, much of the previous regulation has been cancelled. We are talking about a sector that is extremely innovative, but also very prone to money laundering. Stablecoins, in particular, offer powerful tools for transiting opaque capital. Removing the regulations has led to what we have seen in the last year: the US president increased his personal wealth by about $3 billion by launching a stablecoin that has lost 90% of its value in the last two months.

Could this become a trigger for a wider crisis?

Absolutely. This can lead to market shocks that can trigger a systemic crisis. Historically, every crisis is preceded by deregulation: in 2000 in the tech world, in 2008 in the banking sector. Today we have AI and crypto essentially unregulated. My expectation is that the crisis could come within 12-18 months

How important is the debt issue at this stage?

It is central. American hedge funds have doubled their level of debt in the last three years. Moreover, the investments made in the last year in AI infrastructure are financed almost entirely with new debt, to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars. When one says there is a lot of liquidity in the market, one always has to ask how much of that liquidity is, in fact, debt.

What are the differences compared to the 2000 bubble?

In 2000, companies went public in six to eight years. Today, they go public as late as possible and in the meantime make massive use of private debt. Private debt funds have grown exponentially and this activity is being carried out on an ever larger scale. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are aligned in reading this phenomenon as a potential systemic risk factor.

Are stock market valuations sustainable?

No, especially in the US. Indicators such as the Buffett Index, which measures the ratio of market capitalisation to GDP, clearly signal that we are in a bubble. Add to this geopolitical uncertainty, the crisis of liberal democracy, growing economic disparities in Western countries, and political polarisation fuelled by social media, and we have a veritable recipe for the perfect crisis.

Some big investors have already raised alarm signals.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, argues that the long-term super cycle is ending and that the current situation is reminiscent of the 1930s and 1970s: decades marked by high inflation and strong political polarisation. In 2008, governments managed to save the financial system by injecting enormous liquidity. Today it would be much more difficult: after the 2008 crisis and Covid, states are much more indebted and have less fiscal space.

For years he has been a shareholder in Berkshire Hathaway and has a direct line to Warren Buffett. How is he doing in this context?

Buffett is giving very clear signals: he has accumulated about $380 billion of cash through recent divestments, selling 3% of Apple and 11% of Bank of America. Today he invests in short-term Treasuries, with a yield of around 4%. It is an extremely defensive position.

2025 saw an acceleration in the generational change at Berkshire Hathaway, will there be continuity of investment strategy?

Yes, the transition was very carefully prepared. The new management acts exactly in the spirit of Buffett. All of his key people are still there and will continue a philosophy that has proven to be extraordinarily successful.

At the end of November, he joined the board of Giorgio Armani, which is going through an important transition in order to ensure continuity for the brand.

I am very proud to serve on the Giorgio Armani board as a representative of the Foundation. My task is to carry on the principles and values of one of our country's greatest entrepreneurs.

This year his holding Angel Capital Management sold 100% of Milano Investment Partners (Mip) to Soprarno Sgr of Banca Ifigest and L&B Capital Sgr was born, with total assets under management estimated at around EUR 2 billion, of which he is chairman. What is the strategic vision that guided the operation?

This year we completed the merger of Ifigest, through an incorporation that aims to make the bank more dynamic and technological. We want to create a bridge between Italy and the United States with the Deep Tech Silicon Valley fund, which will raise EUR 50 million and invest in early-stage start-ups that we will also bring to Italy. Moreover, the real issue of the future will be the supply of electricity and we have just launched a fund dedicated to the Italian energy transition: 270 million raised in a few months for the closing. For me it is a return to the roots.

What, on the other hand, are the prospects for Banca Ifigest for the year that has just begun?

For Banca Ifigest, whose shareholders and board I joined on the occasion of the transaction, direct and indirect funding of EUR 6.5 billion is planned for 2026 and a

common equity tier 1 ratio of 36.4%.

The holding company Angel Capital Management continues to operate autonomously, with what strategy?

Acm has in its portfolio 35 private investments and 8 stakes in listed companies such as Nike, Booking and Uber: companies that we believe are either undervalued or have technologies that are capable of having an important future. In addition, we have early stage investments in StubHub, a company that went public this year with a valuation of 8 billion. And in Domyn, the most important Italian company in the field of AI, which has solid fundamentals and at the last capital increase reached a valuation close to EUR 1 billion and has established itself on the global market among the big players. Overall, we have solid companies in our portfolio, with little or no debt and strong balance sheets. We are not worried about a possible crisis.

Where do you see the best investment opportunities today?

Innovation and energy are the two drivers. In the US, but increasingly also in Europe and Italy. On early stage companies I do not see a bubble: in stages like this they become even more interesting. Milan is growing a lot as a place for innovation and can play an international role.

What areas of technology do you consider most promising?

Everything deep tech: from robotics to artificial intelligence to innovative energy. These are really rewarding technologies. We have investments, for example, with Sam Altman and Bill Gates on solutions to reduce methane emissions in agriculture.