Art Basel Hong Kong market test between crisis and conflict
The fair opens amid geopolitical uncertainty and signs of trade consolidation. Great focus on emerging Chinese artists
Key points
Art Basel Hong Kong, which takes place next week (27-29 March, preview on 25-26), is the first market test since the beginning of the war in the Middle East. A conflict that also worries China, which has just approved the new five-year plan for 2026-30. At the fair, now in its 13th edition, 240 galleries from 41 countries have confirmed their attendance, including a dozen Italians who return every year, and will precede Trump's visit, announced for the end of the month, by a few days. In short, a situation of profound uncertainty, which does not please China, which is interested in oil from the Middle East, but also in international stability to continue its trade.
The exchanges
In terms of the art market, the year 2025 in China remained stable at $8.5 billion (+1%), according to the Art Market Report by Art Basel and Ubs, which puts the country in third place in terms of market share after the USA and Great Britain. The best performances were in Mainland China, more focused on the local market, while they contracted in Hong Kong, more devoted to the international market. Also according to Artprice's report, China's 2025 market share remained more or less stable (-5%) at $1.7 billion (the study considers only auctions), putting it in second place in the global context.
The galleries therefore face the Asian appointment not without concerns, stemming also from the transport of works blocked in the Middle East, and look to the stock exchanges to guess the propensity of customers to buy.
For Massimo De Carlo, it is an important edition because it celebrates the tenth year of his Hong Kong office. "The artistic ecosystem in Hong Kong and Asia in general has changed at an extreme speed, when compared to the changes that have taken place in Italia, Europe or America," commented Claudia Albertini, who has been running the Milanese gallery in Hong Kong since 2016, but has been in China since 2004. "In recent years there has been a growth in collecting, an approach to Western taste and artistic languages from a culture very different from ours, also favoured by the greater possibility of travelling, social media, and increased spending power. The pandemic further accelerated the art market in 2022-23, also increasing speculation. But it could not last long'.
The real estate crisis, slowing economic growth, and tightening controls on the movement of capital (each citizen cannot transfer more than $50,000 per year abroad) have not helped the art market in 2024-25. "Today you do twice as much work to get half the results," said Albertini, "but you work with a new generation of collectors, who are interested in supporting artists, being involved in production, and relating to the system. A phase, therefore, of consolidation rather than decline. De Carlo will bring to the fair works by Italian, European, Chinese and American artists such as Mimmo Paladino, Yan Pei-Ming, Carsten Höller, Elmgreen & Dragset at prices between 40 thousand and 400 thousand dollars.
