Art Market 2025: Cautious Growth in a Complex Environment

In an international context that to call it uncertain is an understatement, the tenth edition of the Art Market Report by Art Basel and UBS, edited by Clare McAndrew of Arts Economics, was released today. The data, based on sales and information from galleries, auction houses, collectors, fairs, databases and industry experts on the year 2025, reports a 4% growth in transaction volume to $59.6 billion, marking a moderate recovery after two consecutive years of contraction, but still below the post-Covid peak of 2022.
Rather than a recovery, the study speaks of a market evolution, adjusting to the complex geopolitical situation, uncertainties posed by tariffs, volatility, and changes in demand.

Gli stand di Art Basel Hong Kong, Courtesy Art Basel

Gains in 2025 were driven by renewed confidence in the second half of the year and, in particular, strength at the top end of the market. Overall, both auction and gallery sales grew: the former by 9% to $20.7 billion, after a contraction in 2024; the latter by only 2% to $34.8 billion. Auction houses' private sales, on the other hand, declined by 5%, reversing the trend of 2024 (if public auctions and private sales are taken into account, the total was $24.8 billion with a year-on-year increase of 6%). Transaction volume remained essentially stable in 2025, increasing by just 2% year-on-year to 41.5 million.
In 2024, lower price segments had led the growth despite declining values; in 2025, growth in the total number of transactions was more subdued, as merchant volumes increased slightly while auction volumes decreased slightly. There was, however, more activity for works above $10m, both at auction and in galleries, where the low end of the market remained strong, but the very high value segment returned to growth after two years of decline. This was because there was a structural shift towards established artists and more historic sectors, due to persistent risk aversion, while the ultra-contemporary, which had driven much of the post-pandemic recovery, remained stagnant.

Geographically, the three major markets remained stable: the USA in the lead, with 44% of sales for a value of up to 26 billion dollars and a return of liveliness at the top end of the market; in second place Great Britain with 18% of sales for a total value of 10.5 billion (stable); in third place China with 14% up to 8.5 billion. Here, auctions grew, above all, in Mainland China, which is more focused on the local market, while that of Hong Kong, which is more international, contracted. Mixed results in the other Asian markets: sales in Japan were slow, while South Korea grew by 6%.

And Europe? France remains the leading market and the fourth in the world, with total sales of 4.5 billion, i.e. +9% year on year. Switzerland (+13%), Austria (+13%) and Spain (+6%) also grew, while Germany (-10%) and Italia (-2%) slowed down.

In contrast, the online market fell to $9.2 billion, the lowest value since 2019, the pre-Covid year, for both dealers and auction houses. Art fairs strengthened their role in global trade, accounting for 35% of dealer sales, up from 31% in 2024.