Artificial intelligence: Asml's new moves to make chips

Yes, innovation. In order to understand the corporate strategy, it is first necessary to recall the corporate purpose of the group. The hi-tech giant is active, essentially, in lithography machinery. That is to say, in very simple terms, the 'transfer' of the design of the integrated circuit onto the silicon slice - thanks to special beams of light. A process which, in principle, is divided by Asml into two areas: Deep Ultraviolet Lithography (Duv) and Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (Euv). In the first case, we are faced with the more traditional, not extreme frontier, approach - based for example on an ultraviolet wavelength of 193 nanometres (nm). The Euv, on the other hand - exploiting a much shorter wavelength (13.5 nm) - is suitable for supporting more 'pushed' technological productions (manufacture of chips even with gates at 2 nm).

Having said that, the multinational company's project is divided into five different plans. Firstly, there is the will to continue to exploit the Euv family of machines (38% of total revenues in Q3 2025). Specifically, the aim is to increase productivity - more wafers processed per hour - and reduce operating costs. By doing so, customers should be induced - as the company itself indicates is happening - to make greater use of the Euv technology to which correspond - for Asml - higher margins than the Duv technology.

In addition to this - the second point of the programme - the company is betting on the new generation of Euv machines. The so-called High-NA systems. These are solutions aimed, above all, at the realisation of more advanced memories such as, for example, High Bandwidth Memory. These - thanks to the fact that they are Dram 'stacked' vertically and interconnected with very wide channels - allow huge amounts of data to be transferred in a very short time, making them essential for Gpu and processors dedicated to artificial intelligence. Well: Asml points out that more than 300,000 wafers have already been processed on the High-NA systems installed at customers' premises, with a level of technological maturity deemed superior to that of the first Euv machines at the same stage of development. That being said, one should not get carried away by enthusiasm. On the one hand, in fact, important customers such as Tsmc have indicated - although the situation seems to be improving - that they have put the brakes on orders for the most advanced systems. On the other hand, we are not yet at the source of mass production and the higher level of maturity described is the logical consequence of the fact that the Euv was a real innovation. Whereas the High-NA is the evolution - albeit a very sophisticated one - of something that already exists.

So far, some suggestions on the development of Asml's core business. The group, however - this is the third point - wants to diversify its activities. In this sense, there is the aim to grow on a more downstream phase of the chip supply chain: packaging. That is: the process that encapsulates the silicon printed circuit board in a protective container. On this front, the Dutch company is playing its chips on advanced packaging/3D integration. That is, the assembly of several microprocessors or memories into a single module, to make them more compact, faster and more efficient. As part of this approach, the group launched the first XT:260 system on the market in Q3. A scanner designed specifically for 3D packaging, which should serve the world of artificial intelligence. Let us be clear: the technology described is in the 'early adoption' phase. First installations for testing, qualification and development of production flows. At the moment, there are no significant volumes and the impact on the income statement is not significant. A gamble, in short, in which - nevertheless - the group believes very much.

The Metrology and Inspection segment (Asml's fourth project element), which has been generating revenue for the company for some time (4% of turnover), is a different matter. To this area belong scanners, software and inspection tools aimed at optimising the core business of lithography. Well: the multinational company, thanks to its recent partnership with Mistral AI (signed last September with an investment of 1.3 billion), has realised a change of step. Asml wants to integrate new artificial intelligence models into its systems. The aim? To increase the yield of the machines given to customers, reduce calibration times and strengthen the digital services component, which offers higher margins and a growing competitive advantage. Finally, the fifth point: the world of Duv lithography. This is a 'mainstay' of the business, although the increasing focus is on Euv. ArFi, ArF and KrF (about 60% of revenues in the third quarter of 2025) remain crucial for the production of more 'mature' microchips in automotive, industrial and non-frontier products (both logic and memory). Although in the medium to long term revenue acceleration will come from Euv, Duv is a stable, high-volume revenue source.

It seems, therefore, clear how the company wants to move. So, what are - instead - the accounting dynamics? In the third quarter of 2025, the company reported mixed numbers. Turnover was 7.516 billion, below market expectations. Earnings per share, on the other hand, stood at EUR 5.49 compared to the EUR 5.45 expected by the investor consensus. Beyond the final figures, what was appreciated by the stock market was the slight improvement in the outlook for next year. A positivity resulting from the expectations related to artificial intelligence. Ubs, in a report, points out the boost to turnover for 2026 linked to the demand for more sophisticated calculation chips and memories in the wake of the growth in Artificial Intelligence. Not only that. The Swiss investment bank says that, in subsequent years, the new Euv Hig NA machines could further support the accounts. However, the do-it-yourselfer has to be very careful. In the current phase of Ai development, a large part of the demand for advanced microprocessors comes from so-called hyperscalers. That is to say: the US technology giants that are building the infrastructure for artificial intelligence itself. Well: it is well known that - with respect to such mega investments - many experts harbour doubts not only as to the possible return for those who make them, but also with respect to their concrete realisation. In other words: it is not certain that the demand for chips - and thus for the machinery to manufacture them - will ultimately be so sustained.

Consistent with this 'problematic' view, the stock on the stock market seems to be in a standby situation. 'It should be emphasised,' explains independent technical analyst Silvio Bona, 'that Asml has a good long-term bullish stance. From the levels of 2009, it rose to a high - at the close - of EUR 1,010 on 11 July 2024'. From there, the shares fell, reaching - on 4 April 2025 - EUR 550. 'A level that is precisely the long-term dynamic support'. Subsequently, the group recovered, 'reaching a relative high of 939 euro (30/10/2025). Today,' says Bona again, 'the stock is in a holding pattern. In the short term, should the shares break down the support in the 820 area, Asml could fall further to the 760 euro area'. Having said that, however, the expert concludes, 'the long-term approach remains bullish'.

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