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Artificial intelligence, not just job destruction

The term 'robot' is based on a Czech lexeme meaning 'slave', perhaps because robots take the place of slaves. The term 'slave' in turn derives from 'Slav', the language family to which Czech belongs, since the slave trade was concentrated among the Slavs from the early Middle Ages onwards.

by Ignacio De La Torre*

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The term 'robot' is based on a Czech lexeme meaning 'slave', perhaps because robots take the place of slaves. The term 'slave' in turn derives from 'Slav', the language family to which Czech belongs, since the slave trade was concentrated among the Slavs from the early Middle Ages onwards.

But the wave of redundancies that has affected several industries in the US is not a consequence of the use of robots, which is the physical manifestation of artificial intelligence, but of computers linked to generative artificial intelligence. Let us see what is happening.

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With generative artificial intelligence solutions, companies can increase their productivity. Some have already increased it by double digits in no more than six months. These companies can therefore afford to reduce the price of their goods or services, gaining market share over their competitors. We are therefore not talking about companies that lay off because their profits are falling, but about companies with growing results that lay off because technology allows them to do more with less. Blackrock, Cisco, Google, Meta, Paypal, T Mobile and IBM, for example, have recently announced staff reductions of between 2% and 13%.

This is probably only the beginning and in the coming quarters this phenomenon will affect many more companies in all sectors. According to three academic studies that have analysed the phenomenon to date, between 10% and 20% of jobs are at risk with the spread of generative artificial intelligence.

This does not mean that unemployment will increase proportionally, as many new jobs will also be created. One aspect that makes this technological revolution different is that most of the redundancies will be concentrated among university students and not, as in the past, replacing factory work. Moreover, this time it is young people's jobs that are at risk of being automated, which will increase the already intense intergenerational inequality.

Ever since factories began to replace human labour in the late 18th century, workers have reacted to technological innovations with the logical and illogical fear of losing their livelihood. The introduction of the automated teller machine in 1973 predicted the disappearance of many jobs in bank branches. Today, on the other hand, their number has tripled compared to before the ATM because work has changed from a more mechanical function, such as dispensing cash, to a more creative one, such as selling insurance or investment funds.

Furthermore, it is important to understand the concept of the 'J curve' in technology, which refers to the time interval between the introduction of an invention and its mass application. The steam engine was perfected in 1776, but the first steam factory dates back to 1810.

This time I believe the technology will spread much faster, but knowledge of history should lead us not to exaggerate the impacts in the short term.

We also know that these technological revolutions lead to profound changes in schooling: the first factories freed some of the child labour, encouraging basic schooling, as did the advent of the tractor. Finally, the computer revolution gave young people mass access to university. This time, lifelong learning will be decisive, first and foremost to retrain young university students penalised by AI.

Finally, it should be remembered that technological revolutions, allowing us to produce more for the same factors of production, have led to shorter working hours - we have gone from 2,000 hours of work per year in the 1950s in OECD countries to around 1,500 today - and more affordable prices for goods and services, improving our standard of living, as shown by the evolution of per capita income since 1800.

*Chief economist at Arcano Partners .

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