The word from the manager: Janus Henderson

'Still room for growth among artificial intelligence-related stocks'

"The Apple Intelligence platform has excited investors. Microsoft, Asml, Tsmce Nvidia also to be watched closely'

3' min read

3' min read

Artificial intelligence will be a boost for companies in the years to come, but not all companies will be able to exploit it in the same way. This is the scenario outlined by Denny Fish of the Global Technology and Innovation team at Janus Henderson, a management company that manages $361 billion globally.

How long will it be before the massive investment in artificial intelligence turns a profit?

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For Ia infrastructure companies, the profits are already there. For platforms that develop learning capabilities to provide logical inferences from Ia, the capital investment will take time to translate into profit growth. Right now there is tension between hyperscalers and governments on the one hand, who understand the magnitude of this opportunity, and the market, which perhaps expects these investments to translate immediately into profits.

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On artificial intelligence there are the unknowns related to geopolitics and increased regulation..

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In many jurisdictions, we believe that recent trends of increasing geopolitical and regulatory barriers may continue. In the US, for example, both political parties favour greater control of technology exports to China and a potential increase in tariffs. And although Republicans tend to promote a less burdensome tax regime, both sides have factions that support heavier regulatory intervention.

I COMPARABLES

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Where are the greatest opportunities?

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The Ia infrastructure remains the best opportunity, as these companies provide the basis for building the training and capacity to develop final solutions. Artificial intelligence software offers significant opportunities, but also greater uncertainty.

So what?

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It is not yet clear which companies will be winners and which will be losers. Software companies are in a race to create Ia capabilities and monetise them. Unlike infrastructure, for software, Ia will be a scenario where an improvement will not benefit all participants.

IL TITOLO IN BORSA

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Do you think the rotation emerging from the Magnificent 7 towards small caps is likely to continue?

It is difficult to answer this question. Undoubtedly, many companies in these segments will receive a boost from artificial intelligence in the coming years. But the reality is that the strongest financial performance in recent years has come from companies like the Magnificent 7. Leading technology and internet companies are in an advantageous position compared to others, thanks not only to their ability to invest heavily in AI-related investments, but also to the amount of data at their disposal to train their models.

What kind of earnings picture is emerging for the technology sector in the second half of the year?

The profit launch pad for everything associated with accelerated computing remains solid. Noteworthy are the semiconductor companies producing the Gpu's essential for AI implementation. Likewise, the order books for key chip equipment manufacturers are full. The outlook for Internet earnings also remains optimistic, whether in digital advertising, e-commerce or ride-sharing. As already mentioned, we expect software earnings to be uneven as the industry seeks to optimally integrate artificial intelligence. But this potential dispersion of earnings should be positive for stock selection.

IL CONFRONTO

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Is a new sell-off similar to the one in early August possible?

Stock markets are always subject to declines. The technology sector is no exception. However, volatility events offer investment opportunities, as attractive entry points may emerge in previously overbought segments. For more than a decade, the technology sector has been the fastest-growing sector in equity earnings and we expect this trend to continue, if not accelerate. For many of the best-in-class companies, we believe earnings multiples are attractive, as the market tends to underestimate growth opportunities over a multi-year horizon.

The most interesting companies?

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Although artificial intelligence will be a boon to productivity and likely profit growth not only in the technology sector, but across the entire corporate landscape, only a handful of companies are at the forefront of the deployment of this revolutionary technology. All facets of the semiconductor industry are well represented, from Asml's proprietary equipment to Nvidia's advanced Gpu and Tsmc's manufacturing prowess. In the Internet space, Microsoft is leveraging its strong relationship with OpenAI, owner of ChatGPT, to provide a model for software companies on how to integrate artificial intelligence into all aspects of their business. Finally, Apple excited investors with its Apple Intelligence platform, an initiative that combines device-based Ia applications with cloud-based Ia capabilities. We believe the iPhone manufacturer is positioning itself as a gateway for consumers to the vast Ia ecosystem.

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