A breakthrough is now possible for the European art market
Sda Bocconi and Ckgsb, after repeated auction price indices, launch Sentiment monitoring to measure market confidence, which meanwhile moves to the Gulf
It is widely recognised that investing in art is both an art and a science. Similarly, recent advances in data science are helping to make art market indices increasingly effective tools for analysing industry dynamics and trends. While they cannot comprehensively capture the complexity of factors influencing the valuation of works, such indices are playing an increasing role in helping investors understand the market. For private collectors, they provide a useful reference to identify emerging trends, analyse correlations with other asset classes and formulate more informed investment decisions regarding the ownership and management of artworks.
A leading figure in the development of quantitative approaches to art market analysis is Jianping Mei, Professor of Finance at the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business (CKGSB) in Beijing. Mei is known together with Michael Moses for the creation in 2001 of the art market indices, which became Sotheby's Mei Moses in 2016. Overall, the research activities of Mei and Moses were aimed at increasing the transparency, standardisation and measurability of the art market, traditionally characterised by informational opacity and the absence of established benchmarks. "Together with professors Andrea Rurale and Brunella Bruno of SDA Bocconi," says Mei, who is passing through Milan to present the new development of the research conducted on the MM Continental Art Indices, "we studied and analysed the market with the aim of ensuring uniformity and consistency in the quality of data, so that decisions can be based on truly objective elements.
Measuring Market Confidence
Following last July's launch of the Art Indices - designed to offer a systematic, data-driven view of long-term price trends in Asia, Europe and the Americas - this new development shifts the focus to the specific dynamics of individual European countries, tracking the trajectories of Italy, France, Germany and the UK. The new MM European Country Art Price & Sentiment Indices were created with the aim of exploring market sentiment, a concept familiar to the financial world which, in recent years, has also found increasing application in the art market. The intention is to offer a deeper insight into collectors' behaviour and future expectations of the sector in relation to the economic and business environment. The indices are based on 19,258 repeat sales between 1873 and 2025, covering 3,821 European-born artists - 811 in France, 619 in the UK, 636 in Italy and 387 in Germany - sold at auctions by Sotheby's, Christie's and Phillips in London, Paris, Milan, Amsterdam, Cologne, New York, Hong Kong and Dubai and will have a periodic update of four to six months.
What lies ahead
According to the research, periods of high confidence - such as the one between 2000 and 2008 - were marked by highly competitive auctions and consequent rapid price growth. In contrast, after the crisis of 2008, sentiment suffered a long decline, reaching lows in 2020, the year of the pandemic, and in 2024, affected by high interest rates. Today, however, data point to cautious optimism: since spring of this year there is a 'thaw' in sentiment with the strongest increase in European art prices in more than a decade with possible turning points. The German index showed the sharpest growth, outperforming the European average, albeit with greater volatility, between 2000 and 2025, followed by signs of recovery in the Italian and French markets. A sign, perhaps, of renewed confidence in old Europe?
This autumn's fairs and auctions in Europe - from Frieze to Art Basel Paris to the London and Paris auctions - have shown great activity by collectors who have also come from the Americas and Asia and, above all, from the Middle East where investment in culture and art is extremely lively to make the area more welcoming and attractive. Both ArtBasel and Frieze are aiming to inaugurate next year's fairs: the first in Doha from 5 to 7 February, the second in Abu Dhabi in November. The market is moving towards the Gulf, will Europe be able to seize the opportunity?
