Markets

Markets in the red: fears over AI bubble, US jobs and geopolitical tensions

Bitcoin slips below $70,000, to October 2024 lows. Gold down below $5,000, silver in free fall. Spread rises slightly above 62 points

by Giorgia Colucci and Ivan Torneo

Aggiornato alle 22:10

La Borsa, gli indici del 5 febbraio 2026

5' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

5' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Yesterday's touch-and-go of the Ftse Mib at 47,000 points proved ephemeral for now. In a session marked for the European stock exchanges by new reallies on tech on Wall Street and by some alarming signals on the US labour market, the main index of Milan closed with a loss of 1.7% (at 45,819) and lost 46 thousand points, weighed down by the big banks. Keeping the markets on edge are still fears of the bursting of an AI-related speculative bubble, rekindled by the massive investments in the sector (amounting to 185 billion dollars) announced by Google's holding company, Alphabet. This, while at market close investors await more indications on the health of the tech sector the accounts of Amazon.

Complicating the picture are the latest indications on the US labour market: the report by the agency Challenger, Gray & Christmas in January shows layoffs at their highest and hiring at its lowest since 2009 in the country. Numbers that worry the market as it awaits the employment report on 11 January.

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On the European front, today was instead the day of the ECB, which - as widely expected - maintained the status quo on interest rates. President Christine Lagarde reiterated that the institution will maintain a data-driven approach. However, in the future 'a sustained decline in inflation towards 1.5 per cent', Candriam analysts speculate, 'could reopen the possibility of a rate cut by the end of the year'. Instead, a pick-up in growth could 'increase the likelihood of a hike'. The other Old Continent stock exchanges were also in the red: Paris -0.3%, Frankfurt -0.6%, Amsterdam -0.5%, Madrid -2.1% - the worst with the banks -, and London -1%.

Wall Street closes down, DJ -1.20%, Nasdaq -1.59%

On Wall Street, tech remains under pressure. Alphabet Class A slips despite accounts above estimates, penalised by new investments announced on artificial intelligence at a time of market doubts about the new technology. Qualcomm on the other hand pays for a weak outlook linked to a shortage of memory chips. A script reminiscent of what we saw last week on Microsoft Corp, reinforcing the idea of amarket increasingly sensitive to AI costs.

Wall Street closed negative. The Dow Jones lost 1.20 per cent to 48,908.17 points, the Nasdaq gave up 1.59 per cent to 22,540.59 points and the S&P 500 dropped 1.23 per cent to 6,798.10 points.

The US labour market was also back in the spotlight. Figures released by Challenger, Gray & Christmas on layoffs and hiring in the US were the worst - for the month of January - since 2009. US companies announced 108,435 layoffs in the month, +118% compared to the same period last year and +205% compared to December 2025. At the same time, companies announced only 5,306 new hires, down 49% on December and down 13% from a year earlier. In addition, applications for unemployment benefits rose by 22,000to 231,000, with expectations at 212,000. Earlier in the day, Wall Street closed mixed, with the Dow Jones gaining half a percentage point and the Nasdaq losing 1.5%.

ECB leaves rates unchanged as expected, outlook uncertain

The ECB Governing Council decided today to keep the cost of money unchanged. The interest rates on deposits at the central bank, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility thus remain at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40% respectively, levels they have been at since last June. The Eurotower stressed that the outlook is still uncertain due to trade and geopolitics, although the economy continues to show good resilience, albeit in a difficult global environment.

In Milan, gains on banks, down Stellantis

Earnings season continues also in Europe: in Milan eyes are on Bper Banca (+0.6%), in a slight countertrend after announcing in the morning that it closed 2025 with a net profit of €2.1 billion: a figure that also consolidates Banca Popolare di Sondrio (-0.1%) from the second half of the year. In general, a session marked by profit-taking for banks, after a slightly gaining start to the session, with Unicredit (-4.2%) and Intesa (-3.7%) suffering along with the sector.

Hints of a rebound for St (+1%) and Brunello Cucinelli (+1.2%), while Amplifon (+2.9%) and Inwit (+2.7%) topped the main list. Under the spotlight Poste Italiane (-0.7%): according to press rumours, the company holds more than 106 million savings shares in Tim (+1%) and will receive around EUR 13 million in cash plus ordinary shares, worth more than EUR 60 million following the conversion. A figure equivalent to just under 0.5% of Tim's post-conversion capital.

Volvo's debacle (-22.5%) in Stockholm also sent Stellantis (-5.7%) and the European sector to the mat. The French-Italian company, according to Bloomberg, may have to postpone the debut of some new models (such as the Peugeot 3008 and 5008) due to delays in battery production at battery manufacturer Acc, in which the group is a shareholder. Outside the main basket, Ovs rose (+1.5%) in the aftermath of the publication of its 2025 accounts (markets closed).

I mercati a metà seduta

Bitcoin below $70,000, low since October 2024

The fall of bitcoin continues and for the first time since October 2024 it slips below the $70,000 mark. The cryptocurrency since the beginning of the year gives up more than 20%. The climate of uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, according to analysts, is pushing investors away from riskier assets, taking immediate profits. Added to this is the uncertainty over cryptocurrency regulation in the US, which continues to keep the sector under pressure. The Clarity Act, which aims to create a regulatory framework for digital assets, is blocked due to a clash between US banks and crypto companies over how the law should treat interest paid on stablecoins. Another worrying factor for the crypto universe comes from the Fed's cautious signals on further rate cuts.

Dollar rises, silver thud

Meanwhile, on the currency side, the dollar regained tone, with the euro at $1.179 (yesterday closing at $1.18). The Old Continent's currency was also worth 185.1 yen (184.9 yen), while the dollar/yen exchange rate stood at 156.9 ( 156.54).
Precious metals continued to be volatile after last week's thud and subsequent recovery: gold, spot value, was worth less than $5,000 an ounce at exactly $4,850 (-2.2%).

Silver is down sharply, losing more than -16% to around $74 an ounce.
The value of oil is also down, with Wti, the March contract, changing hands at $63.1 a barrel (-3%), after the United States and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday, easing fears that a potential military conflict between the two countries could disrupt supplies

Spread slightly up at 62 points

The spread between the BTp and Bund was slightly upward. The yield differential between the ten-year benchmark BTp and the German ten-year benchmark BTp is indicated at around 62 points, one point higher than at the eve's close. The yield on the benchmark ten-year BTp was stable, standing at 3.47% on the eve of the event.

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