Markets

European stock markets down amid the bond market turmoil, with Milan bringing up the rear. Wall Street up slightly

The BTP-Bund spread jumped to 118 points at the close, with the 10-year yield hitting its highest level since October 2023. On the Milan Stock Exchange, tech shares held up well following Micron’s record results. Brent crude halved its losses and returned to the $100 mark, whilst US WTI rose

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3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – A wave of selling during the first trading session of October on European stock markets, overwhelmed by the surge in bond yields, which is accompanied by persistent tensions over oil and the resulting global inflationary fears. Yields on government bonds have returned to levels not seen for decades, from Treasuries to British Gilts, with the Italian spread jumping to around 118 basis points. This has led to a slump in indices on both sides of the Atlantic, as analysts now anticipate a period of high interest rates lasting longer than expected, whilst there are no signs of a de-escalation in the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East that might mitigate the ongoing energy shock. Even Micron’s better-than-expected revenues and forecasts did little to help; for a moment, it seemed as though the company might be able to prop up the indices, although the European tech sector held up until the end (despite the fall in Nasdaq). As a result, Milan’s FTSE MIB was the worst performer in Europe, slipping further towards the close to end the day down 1.9 per cent.

Wall Street closes slightly higher

Wall Street also fell back, after an initial rise, weighed down by the turmoil surrounding US Treasury yields and rising oil prices.

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Wall Street closed slightly higher on a day characterised by volatility linked to movements in Treasuries and oil prices. The Dow Jones index ended the session up 0.04% at 50,927 points, whilst the S&P500 rose by 0.25% to 7,670 points, whilst the Nasdaq recorded a +0.04% gain to 26,871 points.

Micron has reported exceptional profits, with turnover quadrupling in the last quarter. However, these results are not enough to boost other companies linked to artificial intelligence: Nvidia Corp , AMD and Broadcom are quickly losing their initial gains and trading below par. Also in the red is Alphabet is also in the red, after unveiling its latest artificial intelligence model, Gemini 4 Argon. The new model offers improvements in terms of cyber security, programming and complex professional tasks, Alphabet said. Meanwhile, yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood close to their highest levels since 2002, as did those on 30-year bonds.

Banks under fire in Milan; Fincantieri and tech firms hold up

On the Milan Stock Exchange, as in the rest of Europe, selling pressure targeted the major banks, such as Mediolanum (-3.8 per cent), Mediobanca (-3.7 per cent), UniCredit (-3.6 per cent), Banco BPM (-3.5 per cent) and Intesa Sanpaolo (-3.5 per cent). Almost all stocks on the main index lost ground, from insurance to the automotive sector, via telecoms and utilities. Among the few to escape the downturn were Fincantieri (+3 per cent), buoyed by expectations regarding European defence spending, ST (+0.8 per cent) and, among oil and gas companies, Tenaris (+0.7 per cent) and Eni (+0.4 per cent). Outside the FTSE MIB, a number of ‘challenger banks’ took a hit, such as BFF (-11%), along with, amongst others, Banco Desio (-7.2%) and Banca Profilo (-5.6%). Energy fell by 50 per cent following its application for a negotiated settlement to protect itself from creditors.

The dollar’s rise continues, with the euro at a low

In the currency markets, the euro continues to weaken against the dollar, falling below the 1.13-dollar mark to 1.1255 against the greenback (from 1.1327 at yesterday’s close), its lowest level since May 2025. UThis decline could continue, according to forecasts by UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research, which states that ‘strongly oversold conditions do not necessarily signal an imminent recovery’ for the euro.

Contagion from France sends the BTP-Bund spread soaring to 118 points

Spreads and yields are soaring for Italian government bonds, which have been hit by a very pronounced ‘flight to quality’ on the bond market. Tensions on global energy markets and ‘contagion’ from French government bonds (now perceived by market participants as riskier than their Italian counterparts) have fuelled buying flows towards German Bunds, which have gained ground at the expense of bonds from peripheral Eurozone countries.

At the close of trading, the yield spread between the benchmark 10-year BTp and the German bond of the same maturity stood at 118 basis points, up by as much as 16 basis points from the previous reference level of 102 basis points, the highest level since April 2025. The yield on the benchmark 10-year BTp also rose to 4.69 per cent, up from 4.62 per cent at the previous day’s close, reaching levels not seen since October 2023. The yield on the German Bund closed lower at 3.52% (3.63% yesterday), whilst the French 10-year OAT finished at 4.92%, still at its highest level in 18 years and with a spread of as much as 140 basis points over the German Bund. The US bond market remains under pressure, with the 10-year T-bond fluctuating today around 5.34 per cent, its highest level since 2002.

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