Stock market, Europe down with Brent crude targeting $100. Sharp drop for Ferrari

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The new attacks by the United States on Iran and Tehran's threats dashed hopes on an agreement that seemed to be announced very soon. Concern returned to the stock markets and the price of crude oil began to rise again: Europe, after the records of the previous day (the FTSE MIB marked a new all-time high at 50.220 points) is back on the selling side, while ECB board member Isabel Schnabel, in an interview with Reuters points out that the situation in Iran has already gone beyond the adverse scenario and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already caused major consequences. The ECB, said Schnabel, would have to raise rates in June even if there was an agreement right now.

Fears of a long-lasting energy shock are therefore returning to the stock markets: while on the eve of the event investors had bet on peace between the US and Iran, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, declared that "the Strait of Hormuz will be opened one way or another", thus dampening hopes of an imminent end to the conflict. Meanwhile, the US struck an Iranian missile launch site and ships attempting to lay mines in southern Iran, in what are described as several 'self-defence' raids as Tehran announced violent retaliation. Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said that the US will no longer have safe havens in the Middle East.

Oil stocks rebounded on the Milanese stock market with Saipem leading the way, but purchases also rewarded Stmicroelectronics and Leonardo , which, after a down start, resumed a sharp rise. Also doing well was Amplifon . Opposite front the luxury stocks with Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli. Slip of Ferrari which brings itself to the back of the list in the aftermath of the presentation of its first electric car, with analysts pointing out that the selling price (550,000 euro net of customisation) is higher than the average price of cars from Maranello, but they also believe that the model could attract a new slice of customers.

The price of crude oil flared up again as hopes of an agreement between the US and Iran faded. After dropping to two-week lows on the eve of the event, while an agreement on the reopening of the Strait of Hormiz seemed to be coming very soon, Brent crude oil rose again and briefly surpassed 100 dollars per barrel, only to fall back slightly below, while Wti is in the 93 dollar area. The price of European gas also rose again, returning above EUR 56 per megawatt hour.

Gold prices are falling, in the $4,500 an ounce area, despite the uncertain situation. several factors contribute to explain this apparent anomaly, which does not see a return of purchases on gold traditionally considered a safe haven asset. "Mixed signals regarding the progress of talks between the United States and Iran have somewhat dampened optimism about the possibility of a short-term resolution of the conflict and the normalisation of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This has strengthened the attractiveness of the US dollar as a safe haven asset, weighing on the precious metal," comments Ricardo Evangelista of ActivTrades. A further 'headwind for gold, which offers no yield' comes from rising oil prices, which increase inflationary fears and reinforce expectations of a restrictive Fed, which offers no yield. Watch out for Pce inflation data coming out of the US on Thursday, which 'could influence expectations on the Fed's monetary policy, potentially affecting gold prices,' the analyst concludes.