Stock exchanges, blitz on oil reserves not enough to ease tension. Piazza Affari at -1%

On Wall Street, indices were in the red as crude oil surged, after there were no surprises from the US inflation data - in line with expectations - important for understanding the Federal Reserve's next moves on rates.wall Street ended trading mixed on tensions in the Middle East and volatile oil prices fuelled by difficulties in sea transit through the Strait of Hormuz, with the Dow Jones slipping 0.61 per cent to 47,417.27 points and the Nasdaq up a fractional 0.08 per cent to 22,716.14. Finishing just below par was the S&P 500 (-0.08%), at 6,775.80 points.

It was a volatile and nervous session for oil prices, with the Brent future back above USD 92 per barrel and the Wti future above USD 87 per barrel, while tensions in the Middle East remained high. International agencies report new attacks on the ships stopped in the Strait of Hormuz, while Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesman for the Iranian military command, in a comment addressed to the United States, said to "prepare for oil at 200 dollars a barrel, because the price of crude oil depends on the regional security that you have destabilised".

In the meantime, however, theInternational Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed a record release of reserves to counter the price rises triggered by the conflict in Iran: 400 million barrels, well above the 182 million barrels put on the market in 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In recent days, the G7 had asked the Agency to assess possible scenarios for the release of emergency oil stocks. "Of course," noted the Mps analysts, "the timing of the release will also be important, given that the shortage of supply seems to be concentrated more in the next two months

Gas prices are also rising again, close to 50 euro per MWh.

After initial uncertainties, Wall Street indices took a downward turn (the worst being the Dow Jones), with investors monitoring the situation in the Middle East and oil price fluctuations. Oracle ran after the software vendor's earnings and revenue for the third fiscal quarter beated analysts' expectations; the company also revised upward its revenue forecast for fiscal 2027. In contrast, Drone manufacturer AeroVironment hit on sales, after earnings of 64 cents per share on revenues of $408 million in the third quarter, against expectations for 69 cents on $476 million.

Also awaited were inflation data, which proved to be perfectly in line with expectations in February (0.3% monthly and 2.4% annual, the 'core' data 0.2% and 2.5%). The figure, along with Friday's Pce, is crucial to understanding the Fed's next moves, although at the moment it is the geopolitical situation that dictates the central banks' agenda. Last week's labour data showed unemployment slowing sharply and below expectations, which theoretically could push the US central bank to cut rates, but at the same time, the escalation in Iran risks fuelling inflationary pressures and pushing the Federal Reserve to be more cautious. At the moment, the Cme Watch data on rates predict an almost 100 per cent continuation of the status quo (99.4 per cent), against the forecast of a 25 basis point cut that was estimated at 18 per cent a month ago.

On the Milanese stock market, Mediobanca (+2.2%) and Mps (+0.9%) are among the few to save themselves, as they are in line with the new exchange ratio in view of the merger (net of dividends), one of the most important risky operations that will take place in 2026, i.e. the merger by incorporation of Piazzetta Cuccia into the Rocca Salimbeni institution. The announced exchange ratio 'is slightly higher than the one assumed in our estimates (2.386 ex-dividend)', comment Intermonte's analysts, who also put the accent on the thorny question of governance, still pending. On 15 April, the experts point out, the new board of directors will be elected and the current CEO of Mps, Luigi Lovaglio, is not on the list presented by the outgoing board. Press rumours speculate that Lovaglio could coagulate the consensus of a minority list with funds and private investors (whose numbers, however, are still to be verified) that could challenge the board of directors' list. In any case, upon completion of the transaction, the Mps shareholding structure will see Delfin at 16.1%, the Caltagirone group at 9.4%, Blackrock at 4.6%, the Ministry of the Economy at 4.5% and Banco Bpm at 3.4%.

Sprint on the close for Nexi (+2.5%). Nearly all the rest of the list was in the red, with DiaSorin (-6.5%) at the bottom and weakness in the Defence sector with Leonardo (-3.2%) and Fincantieri (-3.1%). However, sales were recorded in almost all the sectors of the main Milanese list. This was the case for luxury goods with Moncler (-2.8%), pharma with Recordati (-2.7%) and then Ferrari (-2%) and the main banking and insurance stocks.

Outside the Ftse Mib, the performance of Carel Industries (+2%) is also worth mentioning after better-than-expected fourth-quarter accounts and guidance for the first quarter of 2026 in line with

The dollar strengthens and the euro trades below 1.16 again. "The euro is at risk of falling further against the dollar if the recent rise in energy prices continues," says Rabobank's Jane Foley. The US real effective exchange rate has maintained a positive correlation with energy prices since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, given America's position as a net oil exporter.

This suggests that a rise in oil prices for a longer period would support the dollar. "Conversely, the euro could come under pressure due to the eurozone's position as a net energy importer. In the event of a prolonged rise in energy prices, the euro could fall to $1.14 or less, according to the expert.

After a few ups and downs, gold prices declined, but still remained above USD 5,100 per ounce. The volatility, analysts explain, depends on the fact that prices are, on the one hand, conditioned by the bullion's traditional role as a safe haven asset and, on the other hand, by the strengthening of the greenback weighing on dollar-denominated assets and inflationary fears, which could lead to higher interest rates in the long run. More stable was the decline insilver prices.

Eurozone yields are soaring pushed by news from the Middle East, possible spillovers to the global economy and risks of an inflationary flare-up. It also did not help the words of ECB member Kazimir, according to whom the institution's next move could be a rise, which may be closer than you think. More cautious was President Lagarde, who assured that the institution would do its utmost to avoid a repeat of the inflationary experience following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, adding that in any case no hasty decisions should be taken in these conditions of uncertainty.

Yields thus rose across all maturities, with more appreciable effects for Italian government bonds. At the end of the session, the yield differential between the benchmark ten-year BTp and the German ten-year peer maturity stood at 73 points, up sharply from 69 points at the close of the eve. The yield on the benchmark ten-year BTp also rose sharply, ending at 3.66%, up from 3.53% at the eve's close.

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