Markets

Stock market: global flight from bonds spills over into share prices, with Milan (-1.3 per cent) bringing up the rear

Bonds are finding themselves having to contend with oil prices above $92 a barrel and the impact of Warsh’s ‘hawkish’ comments, which are increasing the likelihood of a rise in interest rates in September. The FTSE MIB on the Milan Stock Exchange has slipped below the 52,000-point mark

La Borsa, gli indici del 1° settembre 2026

5' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

5' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - A domino effect is being felt across the markets, where inflation and the surge in crude oil prices are pushing government bond yields to levels not seen for twenty years, thereby fuelling fears of rate hikes by the Fed and the ECB. Indeed, the flight from government bonds is currently the main talking point amongst investors, whilst US-Iran tensions and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz are pushing Brent crude towards $92 a barrel and weighing on the markets. The surge in prices is also evident in the eurozone, where the inflation rate in August rose to 3.3 per cent, well above the Eurotower’s target (which is set to raise interest rates at its next meeting). “Headline inflation has returned to above 3 per cent, whilst the moderation in core inflation suggests that underlying price pressures have not followed the same trend,” note analysts at Moneyfarm - For the ECB, the challenge will now be to determine whether the rise in energy prices is a temporary factor or whether it could translate into more persistent inflationary pressures on the economy as a whole.

Milan is the worst performer in Europe, with the FTSE MIB falling by 1.3 per cent and dropping back below the 52,000-point mark to 51,915, returning to late July levels. Frankfurt also saw a fall of more than 1 per cent, whilst Paris limited the damage (-0.39 per cent).

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Wall Street falls amid fears over rising bond prices and yields

Wall Street closes lower. The Dow Jones falls by 0.79 per cent to 52,767.59 points, the Nasdaq drops by 1.03 per cent to 26,099.77 points, whilst the S&P 500 fell by 0.71 per cent to 7,631.54 points. The reasons are fears over inflation and rising oil prices, which are pushing up bond yields in the US and abroad, fuelling concerns about a possible tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve later this month. Meanwhile, the US labour market is showing signs of a modest slowdown, with job vacancies (JOLTS) standing at 7.27 million, below the forecast of 7.31 million but above June’s figure (7.18 million, revised down from 7.35 million). Unemployment figures are due on Friday.

On the stock market, technology shares are experiencing widespread falls. Heavy Nvidia Corp and Advanced Micro Devices and Micron Technology . Down also for Microsoft Corp and Alphabet Class A – Google’s parent company.

Shopping rewards Novartis Ag , thanks to the positive results of clinical trials on the multiple sclerosis drug. Novartis stated that remibrutinib ‘significantly’ reduced the relapse rate in patients with multiple sclerosis compared with other treatments. Duolingo also performed well, after Evercore ISI raised its rating, as did Medtronic, after the medical equipment company revised its forecasts for the 2027 financial year upwards.

Global bond yield jitters return

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds reached levels not seen since January 2025, before stabilising. The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds hit its highest level since August 1996, whilst the yield on the German benchmark rose to its highest level since 2011. Yields on 10-year Gilts also hit new highs, jumping to 5.25 per cent, whilst the yield on the 30-year Gilt reached 5.89 per cent, the highest level since May 1998. The yield on the 10-year BTP also rose to 4.19 per cent, its highest level since November 2023, before closing at 4.16 per cent (with the spread stable at 83 points). Yields are rising globally as market participants fear that persistently high oil prices could fuel inflation.

According to analysts at MPS, it is worth highlighting ‘the sharp rise in real interest rates in a context where break-even rates have remained virtually stable; this could indicate that the market is paying greater attention to factors other than inflation, such as expectations of a greater supply of government bonds against a backdrop of potentially weaker demand’.

On the eve of the event, there was an attempt to limit the damage by US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who spoke of a fiscal consolidation package to be discussed in the coming weeks or months, ‘probably realising that there are no shortcuts – in the form of a “twist” to official bond purchases – to halting the rise in yields’, the analysts add. 

“Rendimenti dei Bond e rialzo del petrolio mandano l'Europa in rosso”

On the Milan Stock Exchange, Poste and TIM are down, whilst oil prices are rallying

In Milan, the companies bearing the brunt of the pressure on bond yields this time round are Poste Italiane (-3.8 per cent) and Tim (-3.6 per cent), which is currently the subject of a public takeover bid by the company led by Matteo Del Fante.

But almost all FTSE MIB shares closed in the red, starting with banks and insurers grappling with the game of Risk. In the red were Unicredit (-1%), Generali (-1%), Mediobanca (-1.3%), MPS (-1.4%) and Intesa Sanpaolo (-1.8%), regarding which the ‘routine’ discussions with Consob are ‘characterised by the utmost transparency and cooperation’ and ‘will not slow down the ongoing process’ of the takeover bid for Monte dei Paschi, according to sources working on the case. Weighing on bank share prices, however, is the prospect of a rise in interest rates which, whilst on the one hand will bolster the revenues of credit institutions, on the other risks putting pressure on companies’ ability to bear the cost of debt and, consequently, on the quality of the loan portfolio. Not to mention concerns about rising financing costs at a time when there is a growing need to invest in the digital transformation driven by artificial intelligence.

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Prysmian (-2.6%) was also down after analysts at Jefferies cut their target price. Stellantis (-2.4%) lost ground following the appointment of Arnaud Belloni as CEO of Fiat, Abarth and Lancia. Sales also weighed on luxury brand Brunello Cucinelli (-3.3%), as well as payment tech firm Nexi (-3%), followed by Amplifon (-2.8%) and Inwit (-2.8%).

By contrast, the rally in oil stocks continues, buoyed by crude oil prices, from Tenaris (+1.9%) to Eni (+1.5%). The only stock to end the session in positive territory, alongside the oil companies, was Iveco, which closed with a gain of 0.4%. 

Oil and gas prices rise amid geopolitical tensions

Energy prices continue to rise and remain at high levels, driven by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, which are still fuelling fears of possible disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Contracts on Brent contracts maturing in September have risen well above $92 a barrel, whilst WTI contracts have exceeded $88. gas prices in Amsterdam are also rising sharply, exceeding 7 euros per megawatt-hour. Among precious metals, gold appears to be stabilising around $4,400 an ounce.

Dollar strengthens, euro falls below 1.16

Kevin Warsh’s ‘hawkish’ tone is encouraging buying of the US dollar, pushing the euro/dollar exchange rate below 1.16.

In the currency markets, it is worth noting the ‘Bessent’ effect on the yen: in his speech, the US Treasury Secretary has increased pressure on the monetary authorities in Tokyo, stating that he expects measures leading to a stronger yen, prompting the markets to bet more firmly on an imminent rate rise by the Bank of Japan at its September meeting, as highlighted by analysts at MPS. The Japanese Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, later sought to clarify that she had not discussed a potential rise in Japanese interest rates with the US Treasury Secretary.

Katayama met his US counterpart on the sidelines of the G20 finance ministers’ meeting currently taking place in Asheville, North Carolina.

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