Markets

EU stock markets rise as oil prices fall. In Milan (+1 per cent), Avio surges and tech shares rebound

Focus on central bank decisions and the quarterly results of US tech giants. Brazilian assets are expected to fall following Lula’s victory

Borsa a metà seduta

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Falling oil prices and government bond yields that remain below recent highs are supporting European share markets, which are seeking to regain ground following last week’s weakness and are awaiting decisions from central banks. The technology sector is rebounding, whilst investors await the publication of quarterly results from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon in the coming days to assess whether share price movements reflect the sector’s growth prospects. The FTSE MIB on the Milan Stock Exchange is gaining ground, posting one of the best performances across the continent.

On the macroeconomic front, monetary policy will take centre stage this week. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will hold its meeting, with traders – according to CME FedWatch data – more than 90 per cent of whom are betting on the status quo being maintained, followed by a 25-basis-point rate rise at the next meeting in December. On Thursday, it will be the ECB’s turn, with the consensus again pointing to interest rates being kept at current levels, whilst on Friday it will be the Bank of Japan’s turn.

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Brazilian assets expected to fall following Lula’s victory

All eyes are on Brazil, where markets are expected to fall sharply following Inácio Lula’s unexpected victory in the presidential run-off and his rival Flávio Bolsonaro’s refusal to recognise the result. An ETF listed in Tokyo and linked to Brazilian shares is down 16 per cent, whilst the real is under pressure on the foreign exchange market.

Avio soars and tech stocks rebound on the Milan Stock Exchange. Banks hold up well

Turning back to the Milan stock market, buying interest is focusing on Avio , which has been upgraded by Berenberg analysts in light of the growth prospects for orders. Technoprobe and Prysmian – the latter thanks to a recommendation from Citi, which advises buying the shares. Banks are generally on the rise, after Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani stated he was ‘absolutely opposed’ to the ‘taxation of windfall profits’, which he assured would not feature in the Budget Bill; instead, it will include ‘a contribution from banks, insurance companies and other organisations because, at a time like this, it is essential to have everyone’s help”. At the bottom of the list, however, Eni .

Outside the main index, it’s taking off Società Editoriale Il Fatto is set to take off in the run-up to a possible takeover bid by Leonardo Maria Del Vecchio, even though the founding shareholders, who control the majority of the share capital, have already announced their intention not to accept the offer.

Spread down slightly to 120 points

In the bond market, there were minor fluctuations in yields on Eurozone government bonds. The yield on the 10-year BTp, maturing on 1 July 2036, edged down slightly to 4.56 per cent from 4.57 per cent at Friday’s close, whilst remaining near its highest levels since autumn 2023. The spread narrowed to 120 basis points from 123 at Friday’s close. Attention remains firmly focused on French OATs, which have returned to just below 5 per cent for the 10-year maturity.

Borsa a metà seduta

Euro/dollar trade range-bound, oil prices down

In the currency markets, the euro is trading at 1.119 dollars (unchanged from 1.119 at Friday’s close) and 175.62 yen (unchanged from 175.62). The dollar-yen exchange rate stands at 156.83 (unchanged from 156.83). On the energy front, oil prices are falling following a likely technical correction, after Brent crude closed last week at its highest level since April this year. Consequently, Brent is down 1.47 per cent at $115 per barrel and WTI is trading at $101.3 (-1.9 per cent). Gas prices continue to rise, reaching 96.3 euros per megawatt-hour (+2.6 per cent).

Tokyo down 0.8 per cent, at its lowest level since late July

Meanwhile, the Tokyo Stock Exchange has had another negative start to the week, falling to its lowest level since the end of July, with markets on edge both due to central bank meetings (the Fed and ECB meetings on Wednesday and Thursday) and the quarterly results of major US tech firms. The Nikkei index closed at 62,189.65 points, down 0.80 per cent. Electronics firms such as Advantest and Tokyo Electron saw losses of close to 4 per cent. Since the start of October, the index has fallen by almost 7 per cent. The Topix, by contrast, closed at 3,972.98 points, up 0.18 per cent.

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