Markets

Stock markets: Europe rises despite the US-Iran escalation. Tech shares are back in favour, with St surging

Oil and gas prices remain largely unchanged, though supply concerns persist. The spread has fallen slightly to 80 points. The euro is gaining ground against the dollar

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - European stock markets opened higher in the first part of the session European stock markets on the day following a session marked by renewed tensions in Iran and a Fed that appears divided on the direction to take and concerned about inflationary risks, whilst oil, after the previous day’s surge, has edged back slightly. Tension on the markets is therefore easing, with the rebound in tech shares leading the recovery of European indices. Thus, the FTSE MIB in Milan, the CAC 40 in Paris, the DAX 40 in Frankfurt, the IBEX 35 in Madrid, the AEX in Amsterdam and the FTSE 100 in London.

However, the overall situation remains highly uncertain. Overnight, the United States launched a series of new attacks, and Tehran has stated that the Strait of Hormuz will only be opened in accordance with Iranian terms. This escalation was accompanied by fresh statements from US President Donald Trump overnight: the US president maintained the threatening tone of the previous day, whilst stating that he “does not believe” the war will resume. “It will be over very quickly,” he added.

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Fears over inflation remain high, which are a cause for concern for the Federal Reserve, as yesterday’s minutes from the latest meeting showed, reopening the possibility of a tightening of monetary policy as early as October. The dollar is weakening, with the euro rising to 1.1446. In the equity market, tech shares remain in the spotlight, following the loss of momentum that triggered Samsung’s slump, as do defence stocks, which had a tough session yesterday. The market is also beginning to look ahead to the start of the earnings season: PepsiCo will provide an early indication today, whilst next week will see the main event with the major US banks.

St gains momentum, Prysmian also performs well, defence shares fall

Semiconductor shares are leading the rally, following the slump at the start of the week; they are already performing well in Japan and are riding the wave of Wednesday’s rebound on the Nasdaq. In Milan, the top gainers are Stmicroelectronics and Prysmian , which is increasingly in line with the sector. The Milan Stock Exchange is also seeing support from the banking sector, with Mediobanca leading the way, alongside Unicredit , Banca Monte Paschi Siena and Intesa Sanpaolo are all up by more than one point, with other banks also showing solid gains. Weakness is concentrated in utilities and energy, but the defence sector is also losing ground again: bringing up the rear are Avio and Leonardo, holds Fincantieri at par.

Supply concerns, but oil and gas prices remain largely unchanged

Fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East are flaring up once again, as US attacks against Iran continue and the Kuwaiti army has announced that it has repelled “hostile missile and drone attacks” after the Iranian Revolutionary Guards vowed to retaliate against US air strikes on the Islamic Republic. All this has driven up oil prices, which had risen by a further 1 per cent overnight, before the pace of the rise slowed.
At present, both Brent (-0.01% at $78 per barrel) and WTI (-0.08% at $73.46) are trading around the break-even point. Natural gas prices traded in Amsterdam are also falling, following the rises recorded in after-hours trading: August-expiry contracts, having initially reached 49.475 euros per megawatt-hour, are now down 2.22% at 47.93 euros.

Il petrolio inverte la rotta

Euro gains ground, Bitcoin recovers

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar is trading lower and the euro has risen to 1.1444 dollars (from 1.1396), whilst the dollar/yen exchange rate has fallen to 162.29 (162.69). The euro/yen exchange rate remained largely unchanged at 185.66 yen (185.38). Bitcoin is recovering slightly, trading just above $62,968 (+0.5%). Buying is also returning in the precious metals market, with gold climbing back up: +0.8% to $4,108 an ounce.

Spread down slightly to 80 points

The spread between BTp and Bund bonds has edged down slightly, having widened the previous day following the resurgence of the crisis between the US and Iran. The yield spread between the benchmark 10-year BTP and the German Bund of the same maturity stands at 80 basis points, one basis point lower than the previous close of 81 basis points. The yield on the benchmark 10-year BTp is also down, standing at 3.87 per cent, down from 3.90 per cent at the close the previous day. The trend, first observed on 8 July, of French government bond yields outpacing those of Italy has been confirmed, with the 10-year OAT yielding 3.89 per cent.

Gold rises again

Gold prices have risen back above $4,100 an ounce following Wednesday’s slump, with futures in New York up 0.6 per cent at $4,107.90. The rebound is being driven by a weaker US dollar and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, following fresh exchanges of attacks between the United States and Iran on Wednesday. However, rising energy prices could complicate the inflation outlook, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer or raise them further.

Tokyo rebounds and closes up 1.38%

The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed sharply higher. The Nikkei index gained 1.38 per cent, ending the day at 67,743.85 points, after renewed fears over the conflict in Iran had triggered a sell-off during the previous session. The Nikkei index had fallen by 2.1 per cent the previous day. In recent days, following US President Donald Trump’s announcement that an eight-week ceasefire had come to an end, investors have been closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and the trend in oil prices.

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