Markets

Stock markets: Europe set for a positive start as Wall Street hovers near record highs. Brent crude continues to fall

Investors are rewarding strong tech earnings and spending on AI, ignoring the rise in government bond yields and the fall in oil prices, with Asian and US markets on the rise

 EPA

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

European stock markets are set for a positive start to the day after the Nasdaq closed at a new record high on Wall Street yesterday and the S&P 500 moved to within around 0.5 percentage points of its all-time high. Investors are focusing on the resilience of the economy and corporate earnings, despite rising energy costs and pressure on government bond yields, which remain close to multi-year highs.

Furthermore, the market is now convinced that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at the end of the month, postponing further tightening until the end of the year. Meanwhile, in Asia, the MSCI index for the region is up 0.1 per cent, leaving it 2 per cent below its all-time high. Turning to Europe, Eurostoxx 50 futures are up 0.37 per cent and contracts on the Milanese FTSE MIB are gaining 0.32 per cent. Attention remains focused on the political and fiscal situation in France, as well as on the announcement of snap elections in Spain.

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On the foreign exchange market, the euro is attempting to hold on to the 1.12-dollar mark after slipping to a 17-month low around 1.1160: the single currency is trading at 1.1207 dollars, down from yesterday’s close of 1.1216, and is quoted at 177.30 yen (down from 117.18). The dollar/yen exchange rate stands at 158.22 (up from 157.97). On the energy front, WTI crude for November delivery is down 0.79 per cent at $88.72 per barrel, whilst December North Sea Brent stands at $99.64, down 0.68 per cent. Natural gas in Amsterdam is up 2 per cent at 75 euros per megawatt-hour.

Asia gains ground in the wake of Wall Street

Asian stock markets rose today after yesterday’s rally, led by the technology sector, pushed the Nasdaq 100 index to a record high, whilst investors shrugged off concerns over high oil prices and bond yields at their highest levels in decades. All this took place against a backdrop in which US government bonds extended their losses.

The MSCI Asia Pacific share index rose by 0.3 per cent, with gains in Hong Kong, Japan – where the Nikkei closed up 1.05 per cent – and Australia. Earlier, the main Wall Street indices had posted gains, driven by rises in large-cap companies such as Nvidia and Microsoft, which helped the S&P 500 index close near all-time highs. US share index futures also recorded slight gains during Asian trading.

US government bonds at their highest level since 2002

Government bonds in Australia and New Zealand fell, following the decline in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year US government bond rose by one basis point to 5.31 per cent, reaching levels not seen since 2002. The yield on the 2-year bond, which is more sensitive to changes in interest rates, rose by two basis points to 4.83 per cent.

Brent continues to fall

Brent crude oil extended the losses seen on Monday, when it had fallen by almost 2 per cent to around $100.30 a barrel. The fall followed an increase in exports from the Persian Gulf and a price cut by Saudi Arabia, signs of easing tensions in the market.

Earnings, consumption and AI drive the markets

The stock markets have largely shrugged off the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike last month, high energy costs and renewed concerns about inflation, which had sent global bond yields soaring. Instead, investors have focused on strong corporate earnings, resilient consumer spending and a boom in artificial intelligence-related investment to drive the main indices higher.

Gold prices on the rise

In other market segments, gold rose by 0.1 per cent to $4,145 an ounce. On Monday, market participants remained focused on the bond market, with US Treasuries once again under pressure, pushing long-term yields to new multi-decade highs.

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Markets cautious in the medium term

Investors remain cautious about predicting a peak in yields following a steady rise since mid-August, driven by economic growth fuelled by heavy spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, whilst high inflation keeps alive the prospect of further interest rate rises by the Fed.

Turning back to the stock market, market breadth remains one of the biggest concerns for investors. The proportion of US shares trading above their 10-, 50- and 200-day moving averages has fallen to levels not seen since March.

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