ASML casts shadow on chip market, and the share price plummets

Accounts in order, indeed growing. But uncertain future. That is why the lithography giant, ASML, plummeted on the stock exchange, losing more than 6% at the opening. The Dutch company, flagship (or perhaps unicum) of the European chip industry, has beaten analysts' estimates for the second quarter of 2025, but the downwardly revised outlook for the rest of the year and the uncertainty over 2026 hit investors hard.

The numbers say that in the April-June quarter, the Veldhoven-based company reported revenues of EUR 7.7 billion (against EUR 7.52 billion expected) and a net profit of EUR 2.29 billion, again beating estimates (EUR 2.04 billion). The key figure on new bookings (net bookings) also exceeded expectations: 5.5 billion against expectations of 4.19 billion.

However, attention immediately shifted to future directions. And it is here that shadows gathered. For the third quarter, ASML forecast revenues of between EUR 7.4 billion and EUR 7.9 billion, below market expectations (EUR 8.3 billion). The company also tightened its guidance for the whole of 2025: it now expects revenue growth of 15 per cent, implying total revenues of around EUR 32.5 billion, compared to a previous range of between EUR 30 and 35 billion.

And then there is the unknown about 2026: 'The fundamentals of our customers in the AI sector remain solid,' said the new CEO, Christophe Fouquet. "However, we see increasing uncertainty related to the macroeconomic and geopolitical scenario. While we continue to prepare for growth, we cannot confirm it at the moment."

Quite an important wake-up call for an industry that, after years of investment driven by artificial intelligence, is beginning to come to terms with the reality of high rates, trade tensions (particularly between the US and China) and the cyclical slowdown in demand.