Asset management under the microscope following September’s inflow figures

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Asset management under the microscope on the Milan Stock Exchange (FTSE MIB ) as investors wonder about the repercussions the sector will face from the rise in government bond yields, which now offer returns competitive with other investment products. In any case, the September fund-raising figures painted a picture of a healthy sector, which is why most shares are trading strongly in today’s session. In detail, Azimut is trading around the break-even point, whilst Banca Mediolanum, Finecobank and Banca Generali. Bucking the trend is Anima Holding is bucking the trend, losing ground following its strong performance in recent days.

This morning, Intermonte, in light of the fund inflows data, recommended an ‘Outperform’ rating on Azimut, with a target price of 50 euros – well above current market prices. “The September figures are solid, given the negative impact of the market situation in Turkey. The quality of inflows remains positive, with a strong contribution from private markets and very robust figures from Italia,” explained the brokerage firm’s experts, emphasising that the company has already exceeded the target it had set itself for 2026 – total inflows of 10 billion – having raised nearly 11 billion in just nine months. The experts also draw attention to TNB, the retail bank in talks with FSI. The uncertainty, they explain, relates to approval from the authorities – namely the Bank of Italy and Consob – but once the go-ahead is received, the deal could lead to a re-rating of the shares.

Intermonte, on the other hand, takes a more cautious view of Banca Mediolanum, with a ‘Neutral’ rating and a target price of 24.3 euros, but acknowledges that the September inflow figures confirm that ‘the very strong trend seen in July and August was not a one-off’. For Intermonte, the 2026 target for assets under management, amounting to 9 billion, ‘now appears very achievable’. Furthermore, the brokerage firm does not rule out “the likelihood of upward revisions to year-end performance fee estimates, which could also reopen the possibility of further remuneration for shareholders or a potential special dividend”.

Intermonte advises caution regarding Anima following the outflows of 254 million from asset management recorded in September, whilst noting that these were influenced by less favourable market conditions, particularly in the fixed-income segment. The brokerage firm also anticipates a downward revision to its forecast for total inflows in 2026, previously indicated as a negative figure of 5.5 billion, which will instead be revised to over -6 billion. However, as the experts pointed out, this will not have a significant impact on the estimates. It should be noted that Anima remains under scrutiny partly because, as it is almost 90 per cent owned by Banco Bpm , it could suffer repercussions from the banking crisis.

And, incidentally, it should also be noted that it has a major commercial agreement with MPS running until 2030, which will obviously be subject to possible future revisions once the saga surrounding the Siena-based bank has been resolved. And, speaking of Risiko, the long-term repercussions of these transactions also extend to Banca Generali, given that the company’s future will depend precisely on the outcome of the deals involving MPS, which has announced a bid to take over Banca Generali – a move that, however, appears to be an uphill struggle following Intesa Sanpaolo’s revised bid for MPS itself.