The climate summit

At COP31, Turkey is pushing for electrification, but the issue of fossil fuels remains a sticking point

Ankara would like to include this target in the final agreement, but will have to contend with countries that oppose phasing out oil, gas and coal. Meanwhile, Erdogan is celebrating the discovery of two crude oil fields

Un manifestante in costume da dinosauro protesta contro i combustibili fossili alla COP31 (EPA) EPA

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

ANTALYA (TURKEY) – A push for electrification, but what sort? At the Climate Conference currently taking place in Antalya, Turkey, the host nation aims to place the target of increasing the share of electricity in global energy consumption – raising it to 35 per cent by 2035 from the current 23 per cent – at the centre of the negotiations. The Turkish COP President, Murat Kurum, stated on Tuesday 10th that this target is important for reducing emissions, strengthening security and stimulating economic growth: “The age of electricity is taking shape, and COP31 will be remembered as the moment we flipped the switch,” he said.

At roughly the same time, President Tayyip Erdogan was celebrating the discovery of two new oil fields in the Gabar region. According to government figures, last year coal generated around a third of Turkey’s electricity and over 40 per cent of that produced in Australia, co-chair of this dual-chair COP.

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A difficult challenge

Promoting electricity is certainly key to the green transition, provided it is generated from renewable sources, as critics of Turkey’s proposal point out; this condition is not currently included in the proposal.

Ankara, however, would like to include this commitment in the Conference’s framework agreement, which must be approved unanimously and therefore also by those countries opposed to phasing out oil, gas and coal. Refining the wording will be a delicate task, as Australia’s Climate Minister, Chris Bowen, acknowledges, whilst emphasising that persuading as many nations as possible to sign up would still be a good result.

Furthermore, whilst it is true that the costs of producing solar and wind energy and batteries have fallen dramatically, it is also true that cheaper technology ‘is just one piece of the jigsaw’, as the World Research Institute points out.

Among those calling for clearer commitments are the island nations of the South Pacific, which are experiencing first-hand the rise in sea levels, but also European countries such as Portugal. “Our proposal is not simply electrification, but clean electrification, using energy from renewable sources,” said Environment Minister Maria Carvalho from Lisbon.

Brazil, which hosted last year’s COP, has put forward a roadmap to turn the vague commitment reached in Dubai in 2024 – to “transition away from fossil fuels” – into reality. Brazil took on this task following the failed attempt to include it in the conclusions of the Belém summit, due to opposition from a group of governments led by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Emissions temporarily down

Meanwhile, the surge in oil and gas prices, following the wars in Iran and Ukraine, has given a boost to renewables, leading to a slight reduction (of 0.4 per cent) in greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels in 2026. This is the first time since 2020, the year of the Covid pandemic. According to a report by a team of researchers from the Global Carbon Project, emissions from oil alone will fall by 2 per cent. However, the authors of the study state that a decline caused by geopolitical shocks ‘does not constitute a sustainable solution’.

On Wednesday and Thursday, Antalya will host the parade of heads of state and government – a staple of climate conferences, even if they rarely make a lasting impression. It is the absences that carry more weight than the attendees. As well as Donald Trump, who has once again withdrawn the US from the Paris Agreement, those absent will include China’s Xi Jinping, India’s Narendra Modi, Germany’s Friedrich Merz, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Spain’s Pedro Sánchez and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni.

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