Autonomy, who benefits from the referendum: the unprecedented CGIL-Lega axis

Apart from the League, which repeats the narrative that a small 'adjustment' of the Calderoli law is enough and that the negotiation for the transfer of certain matters to the northern regions will go ahead, the rest of the majority breathes a frosty air. The filing of the motivations of the sentence with which the Constitutional Court rejected many points of the League's differentiated autonomy on 14 November confirmed what was already evident from reading the detailed press release: the judges' intervention was such that not only will the Calderoli law have to be rewritten, but there may no longer be any grounds for celebrating the referendum next spring. The wait is therefore all for the decision of the Court of Cassation, which in a few days will have to establish whether, after the Consulta's intervention, the two total and partial abrogation questions presented by the oppositions, the centre-left regions and the trade unions CGIL and UIL still stand or are outdated.

According to Constitutional Court ruling 68 of 1978, the referendum can no longer be held if the 'inspiring principles' or 'essential normative contents' are exceeded, which according to many observers was the case with the 14 November ruling. According to other observers, however, the total abrogation referendum could still stand for what (little) remains of the Calderoli law. Also because of the delicacy of the issue, and its political repercussions, the Cassation Court hearing initially scheduled for today is now expected next week, probably on 12 December. This also gives the proponents of the questions more time, until Monday 9 December, to draft the brief entrusted to the pen of Giovanni Maria Flick.

While waiting for a decision that could change the course of the legislature, therefore, comments are avoided from Palazzo Chigi (and Forza Italia). Even if Giorgia Meloni has acted with facts, personally maintaining the delegation on the South almost as if to make herself its protector. If the questions were to be declared passed, it would be she, the Prime Minister, who would have to breathe a sigh of relief: spending the next few months under fire from the oppositions, divided on everything but united for once, and at the same time having to defend a law that she never felt was hers and that was essentially a concession to the League is not an attractive prospect. On the contrary, in the event of a failed referendum, the rewrite of the Calderoli law would take a long time precisely to allow a highly divisive issue to simmer down.

All things considered, a stop to the referendum would also suit the PD, given the difficulty of reaching the quorum of 50% plus one of the voters in times of high abstention. The only actors pressing for a 'yes' vote in the referendum are, on balance, Matteo Salvini's Lega and Maurizio Landini's CGIL: the leghists could claim the failure to reach the quorum with the argument that in this case abstention counts as a vote in favour; the trade union leader, on the other hand, needs the pull of autonomy to achieve his goal of cancelling the hated renzian Jobs Act.