Mocio (Assiom Forex): banks need new skills, the challenge is artificial intelligence
'Significant delays remain in the European scenario, urgent action is needed to create deep and liquid capital markets'
by Mara Monti
It was supposed to be a year of great uncertainty, marked by geopolitical tensions and tariffs. Yet markets showed resilience: in Italia, the BTP-Bund spread fell to around 60 basis points, the FTSE MIB gained around +40% driven by banks, the Stoxx Europe 600 +20% and the S&P 500 +3% in euro terms. Replicating the performance of 2025 will not be easy: 2026 looks more complex, but solid elements of optimism remain. Massimo Mocio, deputy chief of Intesa Sanpaolo's IMI CIB division and president of Assiom Forex, the association of 1,200 Italian financial market operators, is convinced of this on the eve of the 32nd Congress being held in Venice with the participation of Bank of Italia Governor Fabio Panetta.
As an expert on financial markets, what indications can we glean from these first few weeks?
We have to start from the consideration that we have just returned from three consecutive years of stock market rises, a unique case in this century. The American scenario remains favourable, calls of possible speculative bubbles seem premature for now, in light of the solidity of earnings: quarterly reports continue to surprise positively. Global liquidity is abundant, interest rates stable in Europe, falling in the US.
Italy's banking sector performed very well in 2025 (+80%), can we expect this to continue?
Over the past three years, the banking sector, both European and Italia, has benefited from a significant repricing in terms of multiples. Banks have strong balance sheets, high capital ratios and have been able to diversify their sources of income, with strong growth in fee income and record results in capital markets and investment banking. P/E ratios have returned to pre-financial crisis levels, but US banks' P/E ratios remain higher due to their global presence and increased investments in technology, which strengthen their competitive advantage over European players.
