Bad weather: heavy rain in Emilia-Romagna and Lombardy. Orange alert in place

The weather conditions will ease off during the evening. In areas affected by showers, particularly in the central-western hilly and mountainous regions, there is a risk of localised surface runoff and erosion, a rapid rise in water levels in the minor river network, and rapid landslides on unstable slopes. In the main river systems of the region, water levels are expected to exceed Threshold 1 in mountainous and hilly sections, with the resulting rise spreading to downstream sections.

In a statement on its website, the Marche Civil Protection Agency has issued an orange weather alert. “From Thursday morning,” the statement reads, “conditions are expected to be favourable for the development and passage of intense, widespread and locally persistent thunderstorms, particularly in inland and northern areas, which may result in locally high rainfall totals by the end of the day. The storms, predominantly multicellular, will give rise to frequent lightning strikes, torrential downpours, localised hailstorms and strong gusts of wind, which may cause critical situations and impacts on the ground, due to the possible persistence of the storms or their limited movement caused by orographic interaction with the hills.”.

The Trentino Civil Protection Agency has extended the severe weather warning for hydrogeological risk until midnight tomorrow. Based on the current conditions in the region and the latest forecasts, which indicate widespread rainfall at times overnight and throughout tomorrow, the alert – which was due to end at midnight today – has therefore been extended. The Civil Protection Agency urges the public to exercise the utmost caution regarding the conditions of the routes they are travelling on, including when using motor vehicles, and to avoid approaching watercourses and nearby cycle paths that run alongside rivers.

The bad weather heading for Italy is compounding the damage caused by the extreme heat, worsening the situation in rural areas where crop losses are as high as 80 per cent in some places, whilst farms are being crushed by rising costs – including energy, fertilisers and irrigation – to save their crops. This is the latest assessment drawn up by Coldiretti on the damage caused by climate change, once again highlighting the need for structural measures to save Italy’s agri-food sector. Between extreme heat, drought, hail and wildfires, the damage to Italian agriculture has exceeded three billion euros, according to an initial estimate by Coldiretti.

Maize, rice, arable crops, fodder and livestock production are among the sectors hardest hit. In Piedmont, the situation is particularly serious: in the non-irrigated areas of the Baraggia, between Vercelli and Biella, rice yields are likely to fall by 70–80 per cent, whilst losses of 50–60 per cent are estimated for maize and around 50 per cent for fodder crops. Hazelnut groves are also suffering, particularly the older plantations, with yields down by 20–30 per cent compared with average years. In Lombardy, the heat and drought have forced many farmers to bring forward the maize harvest, prioritising silage over grain, with an estimated loss of up to 30 per cent. Soya bean yields have also fallen by up to 30% in some areas, whilst hay production is estimated to be down by a third on average. For rice, the average decline could be around 15%, with the situation particularly critical in certain areas of the Lomellina.

The impact on livestock farming has also been severe: milk production has fallen by an average of 10–15 per cent, whilst in mountainous areas, the production of alpine cheese could fall by around 20 per cent. The situation is also difficult in Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia, where the arable sector is recording estimated losses of between 40 and 60 per cent due to a combination of drought and high temperatures. In Veneto, the rainfall deficit since the start of the hydrological year stands at 26 per cent, with nearly 2.4 billion cubic metres of water missing compared with the historical average as early as the end of May.

In mountainous areas, meadows and pastures have been severely affected, with damage ranging from 40 to 60 per cent, whilst milk and meat production has fallen by between 20 and 30 per cent. In Emilia-Romagna, the prolonged heatwave has reduced maize production in the Ferrara area by around 20 per cent, whilst hail and aflatoxin problems have caused damage of up to 80 per cent in some areas, rendering part of the crop unfit for human consumption. Summer and autumn fruit, where not affected by hail, has seen yield declines of around 20 per cent, up to 30 per cent, with smaller fruit sizes.

In Trentino, the heat and drought have led to a 9–10 per cent decline in the apple harvest, accompanied by a reduction in fruit size. The situation regarding fodder is also critical, with the second cut of hay having been scorched at high altitudes across mountain pastures and alpine meadows. In Central Italia, high temperatures and a lack of rainfall continue to put pressure on arable crops, fruit and vegetables, vineyards, olive groves and forage crops. In the South and on the islands, the heat and water stress are affecting fruit and vegetables in particular, with knock-on effects on olive groves, vineyards, forage crops and livestock farming (ANSA).