The budget

Stock exchanges, Milan (+31%) and Madrid (+50%) beat global listings to the upside

Europe's awakening, the (withdrawn) threat of tariffs, the boom in artificial intelligence and sly inflation are the key themes of the year that is over and looking for confirmation in the coming months, amidst generalised optimism from investors and investment banks

Maximilian Cellino

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Another merry-go-round for stock markets, the third in a row and the eighth when considering the last decade. Instead, the year 2025, which began under the banner of maximum uncertainty and circumspection on the part of traders, ends with a still largely positive balance for the stock markets.

Starting with that Piazza Affari where, with a gain of 31.5 per cent, the Ftse Mib index returned to its highest level of the year and since 2001 during the final session, and even recorded its best annual performance since 2000.

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The Milanese list's exploit was obviously not an isolated one, but rather fitted well into a context in which, at least in Europe, it was Madrid which, with a rise of more than 50%, was able to edge out Frankfurt (+23%), London (+22%) and Paris (+11%), which was affected by the political and financial crisis.

The Return of Europe

The in many respects unexpected awakening of the Old Continent's stock exchanges, which regained the scene after years of 'subservience' to Wall Street, as well as the advance of the Japanese lists (+26% the final balance of 2025 for Tokyo's Nikkei), constituted one of the dominant trends at least in the first part of the year.

Investors' intention to look for an alternative to the overwhelming power of US-branded assets peaked around 'Liberation Day' on which the newly-elected US President Donald Trump tried to raise the bar on tariffs in early April and was linked to the crisis of the dollar, which has meanwhile depreciated by 10% globally and 12% against the euro alone.

From then on, however, New York was able to reverse course and once again regain the lead in the financial markets, as the narrative around big tech and artificial intelligence took hold again, quickly replacing the themes of uncertainty driven by trade policies and geopolitical risk. As a result, both the tech Nasdaq and the overall S&P 500 index, supported in turn by the sectoral turnaround attempt, ended the year with local currency gains of 17 and 20 per cent respectively.

bubble yes, bubble no

The concluding part of 2025 then reintroduced the debate on the valuations reached by certain securities linked in particular to the AI phenomenon and the existence or otherwise of a speculative bubble similar to the Internet bubble of the early 2000s. In addition to the question that is certainly in the news, there are also the doubts associated with continuing political uncertainty, the unstoppable growth of public debts and a level of inflation that does not seem tamed.

All of which characterises a new year that appears in many respects to be surrounded by a global picture that is decidedly less dramatic than in previous years, but which is not at the same time without its pitfalls and unknowns. In such a context, the forecasts formulated by the experts of the major investment houses on the indices seem, as Il Sole 24 Ore has not failed to point out in recent days, once again rather rosy: an optimism more than ever in search of confirmation.

Square Business Numbers

Returning to Piazza Affari, the total number of companies listed on the markets of Borsa Italiana has meanwhile fallen to 411: the 199 stocks on the main list, 62 of which are on the Star segment, are joined by 212 on Euronext Growth Milan. In particular, the 'small' market saw as many as 21 new admissions during 2025, registering vitality at least in this respect, given that the Ftse Italia Growth index marked a positive change of just 7.8% compared to the +31% of the Ftse Italia All Share.

On the other hand, generalised share price rises contributed to an increase in the overall capitalisation of listed companies to EUR 1,044 billion, which is now worth 47.3% of GDP.

Also growing were trades, which on an average daily basis reached a number of contracts of over 370,000 (+23.0% compared to the previous year) and a countervalue of 3.5 billion (+31.3%), marking the highest level since the Lehman crisis of 2007-2008. Figures that, on the whole, end up setting the bar pretty high for Italian equities in 2026, which is now just around the corner.

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  • Maximilian Cellino

    Maximilian CellinoRedattore

    Luogo: Milano

    Lingue parlate: italiano, inglese, tedesco

    Argomenti: Mercati finanziari, politiche monetarie, risparmio gestito, investimenti, fonti alternative di finanziamento, regolamento del sistema finanziario

    Premi: Premio State Street 2017 per il giornalista dell'anno - Categoria Innovazione

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