Banca Generali rises after Mediobanca's takeover bid, but the Lion plunges

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - More than with the risk, this time, the stock market seems to be grappling with the game of dominoes (albeit banking). And at Piazza Affari the spotlights are immediately turned back on the stocks that are the protagonists of the game. That's because the move by Mediobanca on Banca Generali cascade promises to affect the many games already underway, ranging from Banca Mps on Piazzetta Cuccia itself, passing through Unicredit on the Banco Bpm and, who knows, the hypothesis of a "third pole" returning with new protagonists.

Not even time to archive Generali's shareholders' meeting, in fact, that the surprise strike by Mediobanca changes at least in part 'the cards' in the hands of the various players. An example? The ops of Mps looked at a Mediobanca with the valuable share of Generali in its belly. Key detail. Now, on the other hand, if the Banca Generali deal goes through, Piazzetta Cuccia will become a wealth management giant, but without the "treasury" represented by the share in the Lion. In any case, this also takes pressure off Mps, which, perhaps freed from the "burden" represented by the fate of Generali, will fly on the stock market. And that's without counting UniCredit's doubts after the many stakes of golden power, which could also lead to a waiver of the operation on Bpm (which would then look again to Siena?).

The one who is slipping is precisely Generali, which will suddenly see the number of shares in its possession increase and will have to decide how to move in the future on the dossier with the French of Natixis (and without the crutch of Banca Generali). The risk, in the medium term, is that substantial parcels of the Leone could end up on the market, unless major investors come onto the scene to flank the current private shareholders in the insurance group's capital. Subject, of course, to the lock-up restrictions imposed by Piazzetta Cuccia's takeover bid on treasury shares that will end up directly in Generali.

In any case, the games are all intertwined. That of Mediobanca, explains a trader, is 'a smart move for the Mps operation, but one that makes industrial sense'. What will have to be seen is "whether the operation will go through the Mediobanca shareholders' meeting", so the outcome is not a foregone conclusion, given that even at the shareholder level the various Caltagirone and Delfin are playing on several tables. Linked together, like dominoes. And at the same time, of course, the performance of stocks on the market will have to be monitored: if Mediobanca's share price rises, with the prospect of the acquisition of Banca Generali, Mps' takeover will become more onerous.