Banco BPM, Agricole at 29.9 per cent. The French have alerted the Ministry of Economy and Finance in advance
The possible moves by the French – who are playing down the possibility of a takeover bid – in the context of the Italian political game
by Luca Davi
Crédit Agricole continues to be the focus of market attention due to its moves in Italia, its second-largest market after France. Following days of unconfirmed rumours that the bank was now close to holding a 29.9% stake in BancoBpm via a synthetic position in derivatives, Radiocor reported today that the French bank had given the government advance notice, via the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), of its intention to increase its stake to just under 30 per cent, without, however, intending to exceed the threshold that would trigger a mandatory takeover bid. There has been no comment from Paris as yet.
If the increase were to be confirmed in practice and not merely in intention, the matter would also be significant from the perspective of disclosure to the market. Exceeding the 25 per cent threshold – including through a net position – would, according to Consob’s Issuers’ Regulations, trigger an obligation to notify the target company and Consob within a few days of the transaction. But that is not all. It would also trigger the requirement to declare objectives for the following six months, including any indication of further acquisitions and possible aims to gain control or influence over management. It therefore remains to be seen whether the rumour – should it be confirmed – will be followed by a formal announcement.
That said, it is no secret that the French bank – which, incidentally, has in recent days acquired a 9.9 per cent stake in Grupo Cajamar, the leading cooperative in the Iberian Peninsula – has long regarded Banco BPM as a valuable investment worth protecting. In April, responding to analysts, the bank’s senior management had not entirely ruled out further increases beyond the 22.9% stake, whilst emphasising that the ECB’s authorisation had a specific purpose: to exercise significant influence, but without taking control. This influence is now also guaranteed by the presence of four directors on the bank’s board, who, on 7 June, reportedly voted alongside the rest of the board in favour of the proposal for a merger on equal terms with MPS. With this move, Piazza Meda has attempted to thwart the public takeover bid that Intesa Sanpaolo was preparing in parallel for Siena. However, it is unlikely – if not impossible – that the French would now wish to stand in the way of the Intesa Sanpaolo–Unipol partnership in the MPS deal. Not least because it would require a cash offer capable of surpassing the one put on the table by Ca’ de Sass, amounting to 3 billion.
It is, in fact, more realistic to assume that Agricole wishes to keep all options open in the new Italian banking game of Risk. After all, the French bank’s own CFO, Clotilde L’Angevin, described the group in April as a ‘player at the table’, ready to play out ‘various scenarios’.
But which ones? The starting point – reiterated at the Investor Day in November – is that the group is satisfied with its stake in BPM and intends to remain a long-term shareholder. This gives rise to a number of possible options. The first could be a potential merger between Piazza Meda and Crédit Agricole Italia, a scenario the French would view favourably. CEO Olivier Gavalda had made no secret of the fact that, should the bank led by Giuseppe Castagna propose a merger, the deal would be viewed very favourably, even though a cash sale of the Italian subsidiary is off the table.
