Banco Bpm rises after Unicredit takeover bid, analysts see limited premium
The market is betting on a more generous readjustment of the offer conditions, especially as Unicredit's shares are losing share. Meanwhile, Commerzbank slipped in Frankfurt, whose acquisition is proving more difficult than expected for Piazza Gae Aulenti.
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(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Banco Bpm rises in Piazza Affari (FTSE MIB ), after the surprise move of Unicredit, which launched a public exchange offer on the Milan-based bank's shares, with an exchange ratio of 0.175 new Unicredit shares for each Banco Bpm share. Considering last Friday's closing values, Banco Bpm shares would have been valued at EUR 6.65, a premium of 0.5% over Friday's values. By driving Banco Bpm's share price almost to the 7 euro mark, the market is betting on a more generous rebate of the offer terms, especially as Unicredit's stock is losing share in the meantime.
The Piazza Gae Aulenti-based bank estimates gross synergies of 1.2 billion when fully implemented and assumes gross integration charges/adjustments of 2.8 billion. Unicredit CEO Andrea Orcel indicated that he expects the offer to close by June and confirmed the 2024 dividend policy. The transaction is subject to reaching a stake of at least 66.7 per cent of Banco Bpm's capital, with the possibility of partially waiving this condition provided that Unicredit holds at least 50 per cent of Banco Bpm's capital upon completion of the offer. Unicredit has also set as a condition that the Banco, as a defensive move, should not change the terms of the offer on Anima Holding and that it should not carry out any acts or transactions that could counter the achievement of the offer.
According to Equita, the integration between the two institutions 'would undoubtedly present a relevant industrial value (possibility of strengthening the positioning in Northern Italy, scale on product factories, space for realising synergies)'. The experts, however, point out that the reward is limited. "From our point of view, we also judge the transaction to be sensible from a strategic point of view, as it allows Unicredit to build up optionality on future growth, also in relation to a possible deal on Commerzbank". Equita, however, recommends buying Unicredit ('Buy'), for which it estimates a value of €47.2, and advises caution on Banco Bpm ('Hold'), even though it believes that the price target for the stock is €7.2, which is higher than the stock market price. Intermonte, on the other hand, recommends buying Banco Bpm shares, for which it indicates a price target of 7.9 euro. It believes that the price put on the plate by Orcel is not "adequate to the synergies of the operation and the dividend flow".
Unicredit's number one, meanwhile, admitted that the road to the conquest of Commerzbank is more impassable than expected, also due to the elections in Germany that are lengthening the timeframe. "What we expect from Commerzbank has not changed, but given the reaction in certain circles we have to be patient and give everyone time," the manager said about the institution's investment in the German bank. "We have said that we will proceed" towards a takeover of the German bank "only under certain conditions, which require achange in the positions of certain counterparties," he explained further, adding that "out of respect for Germany and its elections" in any case "there would be no possibility of moving in the short term and perhaps there will not be at all."
