BancoBpm: ‘A merger with Agricole Italia? Yes, if it makes everyone happy – it’s a sound deal’

Banco Bpm is raising the bar on shareholder returns, buoyed by record profits and capital reserves exceeding expectations. And it is throwing the door wide open to the bank’s largest shareholder, Credit Agricole, which holds a 29.3 per cent stake. A merger between Banco Bpm and Credit Agricole Italia “has always been a possibility, for at least two, three or four years: ever since they became our shareholders, there has been a potential opportunity on the table”, said Piazza Meda’s CEO, Giuseppe Castagna, responding to analysts’ questions during the conference call on the first-half results. “We will examine this potential opportunity” to assess “whether it will become feasible and in the best interests of all the bank’s shareholders”, he added.

According to Castagna, ‘from an industrial point of view’ it would be ‘a sound merger’, but ‘we obviously need to find a solution that satisfies all the bank’s other shareholders so that this transaction can go ahead at some point’. Castagna then noted that he did not wish to comment on the government’s possible stance on the matter: “There are rules and considerations to be respected, and I do not wish to get into issues that are not related to what I can attempt to decide,” said the banker.

Castagna also returned, however, to the subject of the negotiations with Siena, which have now fallen through. ‘All this speculation’ surrounding the Banco BPM situation ‘I believe stems from the fact that a certain statement’ by Crédit Agricole ‘has been emphasised’, namely that it ‘would see no value in a transaction with MPS’, but ‘let’s be clear: the decision not to proceed with the potential opportunity represented by a merger with MPS was taken solely by the bank’s board of directors”, said the banker. The board, he added, “includes four members elected from the list backed by Credit Agricole”, but “the decision was unanimous”. Castagna went on to explain that ‘after months of waiting, we were unable to ascertain’ what sort of transaction might have been achieved with MPS, partly because ‘we would no longer have been in a position to reach a deal in August or September’, that is to say, “before Intesa Sanpaolo’s public offer was made”. What Banco BPM therefore considered to be “a very important and profitable opportunity unfortunately did not materialise”.

In terms of figures, the new target envisages total distributions of around €7 billion over the period 2024–2027 – €1 billion more than the previous target – to be returned via cash dividends and share buy-backs, with the breakdown yet to be determined.

The first increase will come as early as the 2026 interim dividend, forecast at around 750 million, with a dividend of 0.50 euros per share expected, compared with the 0.46 euros and approximately 700 million distributed as an interim dividend in 2025.