Credit

Banca Progetto, final rush for binding offers

Due by 20 July the relaunch proposals from the commissioned group. From CF+ to Aidexa, several banks and funds on the dossier: needs rise to 200 million

by Luca Davi

11 July 2025

3' min read

Key points

The capital node
The role of the Interbank Fund
Focus Mediocredito Centrale

3' min read

Among banks and funds potentially interested in the dossier, the game for Banca Progetto is heating up. According to reports in Il Sole 24 Ore, by next week - the deadline is 20 July - binding offers are expected for the acquisition of the digital bank, which is currently under administration by the Bank of Italy.

On the table of the two commissioners, Lodovico Mazzolin and Livia Casale - flanked by Lazard as financial advisor and BCG for the asset quality review - proposals from various subjects are expected. At least five to six banks and funds have in fact expressed interest in recent weeks, applying to submit a binding offer.

On the banking front, there are proposals from Banca CF+, the challenger bank that recently launched a takeover bid on Banca Sistema, and Aidexa, which would operate autonomously but in coordination with the Cerberus fund - which has Roberto Nicastro as advisor for Europe - also a potential candidate to enter the field, thanks to its financial capacity.

Among the funds, one looks at the moves of Oaktree, the current shareholder of the bank for sale, which would move in tandem with Jc Flowers. The American fund would thus return to the scene after having sold Banca Progetto to Centerbridge in September 2024, in a transaction that later ended up at the centre of a heated legal dispute. Also showing interest would be the US fund Davidson Kempner, already active in several dossiers in Italy and known for having sold Prelios to Andrea Pignataro's Ion in 2024 for €1.35 billion.

The Capital Node

In the coming days it will be seen who will actually decide to come forward and with what proposals, which will inevitably be conditional, given the uncertainty of the context. The crucial issue for all potential buyers remains the amount of recapitalisation needed to relaunch the bank. According to some estimates, the requirement is now in the region of EUR 200-230 million, up from the approximately EUR 100 million initially assumed. It is not excluded, however, that the final bill could be more rounded.

Much will depend on the outcome of the asset quality review conducted by Bcg and the final classification of loans between performing and non-performing. In addition to the credit risk on disbursements, there will also be the operational risk linked to the guarantees granted over the years by the bank under investigation by the public prosecutor's office.

The Role of the Interbank Fund

In this scenario, it remains to be clarified what role the Interbank Deposit Protection Fund, which currently remains at the window, could play. Its possible intervention would only be possible in the presence of a serious recovery plan and alongside a solid partner, with clear prospects of relaunching the bank, which will have to be in a state of solvency.

Focus Mediocredito Centrale

For this reason, the focus is also on Mediocredito Centrale. Invitalia's subsidiary is the main provider of state-guaranteed loans through the Fondo centrale di garanzia per le Pmi, managed by Mediocredito itself. The bank, led by CEO Francesco Minotti, together with Sace, plays a major role as guarantor in the loans granted by Banca Progetto and could therefore now have an important say. Depending on its involvement, there are two options on the table: the sale of Banca Progetto en bloc, with adequate guarantees, to one (or more) parties, subject to recapitalisation, or a 'break-up', with the sale of a bad bank - perhaps with the intervention of Mcc - into which the 'bad' loans would be channelled and, in parallel, the sale of the remaining bank, reorganised albeit downsized, to be entrusted to an industrial operator.